Climate change is a serious global issue. While a few developed countries are responsible for 92 percent of carbon emissions, the Global South is bearing the brunt of an ensuing climate crisis – around 3.6 billion people are affected by it. Apart from the devastating effect of climate change, rising economic woes have only intensified troubles for developing states, including Pakistan. These states are unwilling importers of climate damage from the exporters, i.e., the developed countries.
Although Pakistan contributes only 0.3 percent of greenhouse gases, it is one of the most vulnerable states to climate change. Only a snapshot of 2022 is enough to understand the scale of changes brought by climate crises in Pakistan. First, the country saw an unprecedented heatwave that caused severe droughts. Temperatures hit 50°C in different areas of Pakistan. The heatwave was followed by record-level monsoons and flash floods, which inundated one-third of the country and claimed 1730 lives, while 33 million people were displaced. The catastrophe damaged schools, bridges, roads, health facilities, and infrastructure.
This is only the beginning of the devastation that the country has to face in coming times due to climate crisis. The Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan among the top 10 most vulnerable countries. The cost of recent floods is enormous. According to estimates, reconstruction will cost $28 billion to $40 billion. According to the World Bank, current floods will push roughly 9 million people under the poverty line.
The imminent threat of food insecurity is another challenge, as a large part of crops and vegetables have been lost to floods. The prices of essential food commodities have already skyrocketed. Inflation has reached 31 percent. Experts warn that upcoming crops will be adversely affected.
At systemic level, the shift in global geostrategic environment is another factor negatively affecting supply chains across the world. For example, Russia-Ukraine conflict has resulted in complex politics and higher food prices across the globe.
Pakistan needs to consolidate its resources to cope with these challenges. Climate change and debt crisis are interlinked and exacerbate each other – economic losses caused by the former lead to the latter issue. High debt leads to low spending on climate change mitigation. The climate crisis has hit the country in the midst of sky-rocketing external debt. The government needs to repay its debt and fund imports in the next 12 months. The government-led Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) estimates that the total cost of floods is $30 billion – for which it urgently needs $15.2 billion in losses and $14.9 billion in damages. Although the country has received international pledges and economic aid, a major question is that of climate injustice. Pakistan is paying the price for the climate violations of other states.
According to the World Bank, Pakistan’s economic growth contracted from 6 percent to 2 percent this year largely owing to floods. Also, Moody’s and Fitch have downgraded its credit rating on the pretext of “higher debt sustainability risks.” In such circumstances, Pakistan faces the challenge of choosing between debt repayment and climate change mitigation. Strict terms and conditions of the IMF in these difficult times is another issue of economic imperialism.
In this context, debtor countries must bear some responsibility for the hardships of weaker members, which have a smaller role in causing such calamities. The cancellation or restructuring of debt is the only way forward for helping countries like Pakistan to address the challenges of climate change as they possess inadequate resources or capacity to take preventive measures or reconstruct infrastructure damaged by natural calamities. The UN memorandum also calls for the consideration of debt relief so that policymakers may prioritize the financing of disaster response over loan repayment. The UN chief has rightly urged world leaders to consider debt reduction for countries facing economic and climate challenges. Debt restructuring and debt swaps will help the country mitigate the devastation caused by calamities in the future. It will help in investing in an infrastructure resilient to climate change.
It is the moral and ethical responsibility of the Global North to compensate the developing world for its losses by lessening debt unsustainability and economic vulnerabilities. Mere pledges will not help the vulnerable and poor citizens of these regions. There is a pressing need to take solid and practical steps that will mitigate the threat of climate change and build climate-resilient infrastructure in Pakistan and other developing countries.
About the Author
Wajid Islam holds an MPhil degree in Economics and is currently working as a researcher and lecturer of Economics.
