The Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad organized the roundtable on “Indian Missile Fiasco: Technical Malfunction and Failure of Diplomacy†on 21 April 2022. The roundtable was conducted in hybrid mode with limited participation in-person and on zoom. Participants were from academia, research community, and diplomatic community.
Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Executive Director CISS Islamabad, welcomed the guests. In the opening remarks he said, “this was the first accidental launch of missile between two nuclear-armed arch rivals, the incident could have led to Pakistani retaliation/vertical escalation, if Pakistan had not exercised prudence, restraint, and responsibility instead of a knee-jerk proportionate responseâ€. He pointed out the Indian “callousness and ineptitude†that raised serious questions about India’s command and control, security and safety procedures and physical safeguards to prevent accidental launch during simulation exercises, routine maintenance, and peacetime.
Speaking on the topic of what actually caused the incident of India’s accidental launch of missile on 9 March 2022, Syed Muhammad Ali, Director CASS, presented three different scenarios. First scenario was based on technical malfunction. Second scenario was the possibility of a field-commander going rogue. Third scenario was of intentional use. He further highlighted seven aspects of the incident. The aspects were; Technical, Operational, Nuclear Command and Control, Doctrinal, Safety, Security, and Diplomatic.
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Professor at SPIR, QAU highlighted that nervousness is the key to understand what is going on in India. He also emphasized that Indian air force has a tarnished ego after Feb 2019, operation swift retort. Talking about discourse on Indian no-first use he underlined three school of thoughts. These school are 1) keep it, 2) completely finish it, 3) operationally first, and rhetorically no-first. On hypothetical scenario of missile hitting a commercial aircraft, he pointed out that international community could have placed blame on non-State actors in Pakistan.
Dr. Rizwana Abbasi, Associate Professor at NUML, talked about failure of diplomacy. This failure of diplomacy is in two forms; nuclear diplomacy and nuclear CBMs. Both 1991 and 2005 agreements should be strictly adhered by India and Pakistan. She further emphasized the need of communication channels through hotlines should be activated. In the end, she focused on the need for expanding pre-notification agreement to include cruise-missiles along with ballistic missile.
Ambassador Ali Naqvi, Executive Director CISS, ended the roundtable by summing up and giving a vote of thanks on behalf of the participants.
Ali Sarwar Naqvi is Executive Director at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
