The Fourth Industrial Revolution is undeniably driven by disruptive technologies. At the heart of this transformation is artificial intelligence (AI), which states across the world are integrating into their conventional and nuclear weapons systems.
Following the lead of major powers like the US and China, both India and Pakistan – particularly the former – are incorporating AI into their defence sectors. These dual-use technologies are contributing to India’s increasingly offensive military doctrines and postures in South Asia vis-a-vis Pakistan. Their potential deployment in warfare raises serious concerns, including the risks of miscalculation, technological malfunctions and accidental escalation.
Unless regulated through confidence-building measures (CBMs) and institutional frameworks, AI and other disruptive technologies in the defence sectors of these hostile neighbours will exacerbate regional instability. India, in particular, is making concerted efforts not only to strengthen its AI capabilities but also to position itself as a regional leader in this domain. With AI-powered weapons and surveillance systems, India aims to accelerate decision-making processes while simultaneously shortening the sensor-to-shooter gap.
At India’s first-ever Niche Technology Nexus (NTN-2024) seminar, titled ‘Innovating Tomorrow’s Battlefront with Quantum and Electronic Mastery’, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan emphasised the need to integrate AI, machine learning (ML), and quantum technologies into electronic warfare (EW) systems to radically transform modern military operations. In October 2024, CDS Chauhan, along with the secretary of defense R&D and chairman of the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO), Dr Samir V Kamat, launched the Evaluating Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (ETAI) Framework and Guidelines for the Indian armed forces.
India’s AI ambitions extend beyond conventional applications. While plans are in place to use AI for natural language processing, facial recognition, satellite imagery analysis, and other autonomous weapon systems, the Indian military is also working on a tri-services project to develop a high-powered computing AI cloud.
These massive strategic investments are not only reshaping India’s defence landscape but also influencing the security dynamics of the entire region. The Indian Ministry of Defence has committed an annual budget of $12 million for the next five years to the Defense Artificial Intelligence Project Agency (DAIPA). The Defense AI Council (DAIC) also provides guidance on AI-related developments. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has already announced that India is set to develop 25 defence-specific AI products this year.
India has also established the Centre for AI and Robotics (CAIR) to develop AI-based net-centric systems for tactical command, control, and communication, in addition to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). CAIR has successfully modernized the robotic maintenance system of the Indian Air Force, including enhancements to the HAL Tejas aircraft. In 2016, the Indian military approved the acquisition of over 5,000 UAVs and has since focused on developing advanced anti-drone mechanisms.
New Delhi is also working on a Multi-Agent Robotic Framework that enables coordinated operations among robotic systems in a battlefield environment. India’s aggressive push for AI in defence is further reflected in its AI roadmap, which includes 61 projects under the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), 30 of which have already been successfully completed.
In contrast, while Pakistan appears aware of these concerning developments in its neighbourhood, its integration of AI in the defence sector remains relatively limited. According to a 2020 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pakistan’s AI militarisation is constrained by its reliance on imports rather than indigenous development. However, recent initiatives indicate a shift in Pakistan’s approach to counter India’s expanding AI capabilities.
In 2018, Pakistan’s National Center of Robotics and Automation received $1.67 million for three AI projects: robot design and development, industrial monitoring and automation, and human-centred robotics. The Pakistan Air Force has also established the Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Computing (CENTAIC) and introduced a course on cognitive electronic warfare in 2020. In 2022, the Pakistan Army launched the Army Centre of Emerging Technologies, dedicated to AI research in cybersecurity.
Technological advancements have significantly influenced India’s military doctrines. In 2017, India adopted the Joint Doctrine of Indian Armed Forces to leverage disruptive technologies for military advantage. This was followed by the Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD) in 2018, which emphasised a multi-front operational environment, hybrid warfare, and AI-driven military integration.
Post-nuclearisation, India initially projected its No First Use (NFU) nuclear policy as an example of strategic restraint. However, with growing technological sophistication, this commitment appears to be eroding. Several Indian officials have publicly questioned NFU, dismissing it as “ill-thought and outdated.”
Pakistan has long been sceptical of India’s NFU policy, particularly since the 2014 BJP election manifesto suggested revising India’s nuclear doctrine. This scepticism deepened in 2019 when Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stated during a visit to Pokhran that India’s NFU commitment was “subject to circumstancesâ€. Technological advancements have consistently enabled India to refine its military doctrines, reinforcing its ability to address perceived threats.
With its rapid AI militarisation, India may be emboldened to adopt offensive nuclear postures, such as the Launch on Warning (LOW) strategy, thereby lowering the nuclear threshold. The increasing reliance on AI-driven military decision-making could encourage India’s politico-military leadership to explore aggressive doctrinal shifts vis-a-vis Pakistan. Such a scenario raises the risk of miscalculations and crises similar to the Balakot incident of 2019.
To mitigate these risks and prevent the reckless use of disruptive technologies, both Pakistan and India must engage in regulatory frameworks and confidence-building measures (CBMs). These should include robust communication channels, bilateral discussions on disruptive technologies – particularly in command-and-control systems – and agreements on responsible AI use in military operations. Given the fragile security environment in South Asia, the integration of AI in military systems requires immediate attention to prevent unintended escalations and ensure strategic stability in the region.
This article was published in another form at https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1277563-south-asia-s-ai-arms-race
Mr Yasir Hussain is Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad and is currently placed at CISS-KIU Research Center, Karakorum International University (KIU), Gilgit-Baltistan, Gilgit.
Dalir Khan is an assistant professor of international relations at the Abdul Wali Khan University and a PhD scholar at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
