The Interplay between Nuclear Weapons and Emerging Technologies

Nuclear weapons remain the absolute weapon as no other weapon has been able to match their destructive power. The magnitude of their destructive power has made their use an unthinkable idea, thereby giving the world the notion of deterrence. Due to their deterrent value, nuclear weapons have played a key role in shaping the international security order for more than seven decades. However, the development of new technologies and their military applications has cast doubts on the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence in the future. There is a fear of the potential erosion of nuclear deterrence due to the nature of emerging technologies. However, while the impact of emerging technologies will certainly be felt on nuclear weapons, they are going to keep their relevance and importance for the foreseeable future.

The interplay between nuclear weapons and emerging technologies can be categorised into two. First, the technologies that will aid or degrade the operationalisation of nuclear weapon systems, and second, the weapon systems or delivery platforms like high precision or hypersonic weapons; that can be used as nuclear delivery systems.

Technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Cyber, Quantum Technology, or Machine Learning can be used to either improve or disrupt the command and control of weapons. More broadly, AI can be used in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, logistics, cyber operations, command and control, and autonomous vehicles. Similarly, cyber tools can be used for data manipulation, jamming of communication channels, and cyber spoofing. All in all, the major impact of such technologies will result in an enhanced speed of warfare. The abundance of data and fast communication channels will make decision-making and transfer of launch orders faster. However, the employment of cyber means might also raise questions on the reliability and integrity of nuclear weapon systems. The jamming of communication channels could restrict a state’s ability to launch a weapon or maintain the command and control of systems.

On the other hand, precision-guided, hypersonic, and lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) are, in simpler terms, delivery means working as traditional weapons. Although, these weapons systems will still use AI and cyber for their operations. Hypersonic weapons, along with precision-guided conventional weapons, can take the role of non-strategic nuclear weapons. These weapons can be used to strike the enemy’s key military targets with pinpoint accuracy at hypersonic speed. Moreover, hypersonic weapons can be armed with both conventional and nuclear warheads causing miscalculation and inadvertent escalation. The US is developing its conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) posture to strike anywhere in the world in less than one hour.

Emerging technologies create dangers for the maintenance and control of nuclear weapons, demanding more vigilance and thorough inspection of risks and options from the decision-makers.

LAWS can be used for both offensive and defensive purposes. In offensive operations, LAWS are mostly drones, torpedoes, and cruise missiles. As for defensive operations, missile defence is the best example of autonomy. While it is a dangerous idea, LAWS can be armed with a nuclear warhead. Russia, for example, has developed a nuclear-armed torpedo, Poseidon.

Emerging technologies will also impact force posture’s objective to deter or prepare to fight. The primary objective of nuclear weapons remains their deterrent value. While some precision-guided and hypersonic weapons are destructive, they are mostly developed for counterforce targeting, which will not carry the same deterrent value as strategic nuclear weapons. The precision-guided weapons are more useable, and military planners can contemplate their employment without major repercussions, which is not the case with nuclear weapons.

The nuclear-emerging technologies interplay will also influence the nuclear posture of competing powers. Combined with cyber operations, hypersonic weapons can be ideal for first-strike operations. This can force the adversary to maintain its nuclear force in a launch-on-warning posture to avoid being disarmed completely. More countries will be maintaining the launch on warning or launch under attack posture due to the increasing speed and accuracy of emerging weapons systems. Even those still maintaining deterrence by punishment or counter-value-focused postures will face credibility issues from their adversaries.

Another risk is posed by the temptation to employ dual-use weapons to disarm the opponent’s nuclear forces. For this, conventional armed hypersonic weapons present the best option. Similarly, while the directed energy weapons may not be used to destroy nuclear missile silos, they can still be used to strike and disrupt the adversary’s command and control system. Moreover, directed-energy weapons also interact with nuclear weapons due to their use in missile defence systems.

The interplay will also have psychological effects on the decision makers when looking at nuclear weapons. They may find non-nuclear weapons to have lesser repercussions than nuclear weapons, therefore, considering them more useable. The use of autonomy and AI in missile defence systems will also make the first strike against nuclear weapons more appealing to decision-makers. Therefore, non-nuclear weapons have more likelihood of being used compared to nuclear weapons.

While the interplay with emerging technologies has destabilising effects, they still orbit around nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are still at the forefront in terms of relevance and scope. Furthermore, the development of emerging technologies by all the major powers will also create mutual vulnerability among them, indirectly strengthening deterrence between them. Nuclear weapons hold central ground mainly due to their destructive potential. Emerging technologies create dangers for the maintenance and control of nuclear weapons, demanding more vigilance and thorough inspection of risks and options from the decision-makers.

However, going forward, the international community needs to establish a regulatory mechanism for emerging technologies, particularly the LAWS and precision-guided weapons and the governance of cyberspace. The regulatory mechanism can include banning or prohibition and managing the production, procurement, and trade of certain weapons. The international community has already established regulatory mechanisms since the start of the 20^th century, first for conventional and then for nuclear weapons. Today, the impact of emerging military technologies on nuclear weapons requires greater attention to avoid the risks and disastrous consequences.

This article was published in the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research (CSCR) on September 30, 2022. https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/defense-security/the-interplay-between-nuclear-weapons-and-emerging-technologies/