The evolving great power competition between the United States and China has shifted the geopolitical theater from Middle East to Asia-Pacific. The region of Asia-Pacific comprises of the Asian mainland, Indian Ocean, and Pacific Ocean. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2011 and the successive U.S. administrations have started to use the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ instead of Asia Pacific to bolster the importance of India in the region. The Asia-Pacific region has become an arena of geopolitical contestation, and the United States has unveiled a comprehensive Indo-Pacific strategy. The aim is to secure its economic, strategic and political interests in the region. Central to this strategy lies the formation of alliances and strategic partnerships to counter Chinese influence in the region. The significance of the region can be gauged by the fact that it houses vital shipping lanes, which are crucial for global energy supplies and international commerce. As Beijing’s influence in the region has widened, Washington is shifting its focus from the Middle East to the Asia Pacific. This strategic shift could potentially raise concerns for Pakistan, as the region is becoming a focal point for strategic competition among great powers.
In February 2022, the United States has unveiled its Indo-Pacific Strategy with a clear objective to counter the increasing influence of China in the region. For this purpose, Washington is augmenting alliances with ‘like-minded democracies’ in the region. At the heart of this strategy is the bolstering of India as Net security provider in the region. This strategic partnership between Washington and New Delhi was seen as a concern in Islamabad and Beijing as well. As the balance of power is tilted towards India in this new grand game, there is a possibility that the United States could leverage its influence over international financial institutions to pressurize Pakistan to align with its strategic goals in the region. However, within the context of a second Trump presidency, it is yet to be seen how it will address challenges to U.S – Pakistan relations against the backdrop of the Indo Pacific strategy.
Indo-Pacific strategy has certain implications on Pakistan, especially because of burgeoning defense relationship between India and the United States. The U.S-India partnership, strengthened by joint ventures such as the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) and 2+2 dialogues, seeks to enhance mutual collaboration in critical technological areas like cybersecurity, quantum computing, and space technologies, bolstering India’s rise as a technological powerhouse. For Pakistan, this joint initiative translates into a more formidable Indian military with enhanced surveillance and weaponry, impacting its conventional deterrence. Under the framework of the 2+2 dialogue, the United States has vowed to reinforce Indian defense by supporting it on strategic issues, intensifying pressure on Pakistan in disputes over Kashmir and border management. Moreover, Basic Exchange Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and other defense agreements allow India to access real-time intelligence and advanced reconnaissance, increasing its surveillance capabilities along Pakistan’s border. This enhanced situational awareness could potentially raise security concerns for Pakistan. Given Pakistan’s historic tensions with India, this development is of paramount importance as New Delhi already enjoys superiority in conventional forces.
Indian ambitions of developing a “blue water†navy has further exacerbated security concerns for Pakistan, which could India’s power far beyond its shores. The Quadrilateral security dialogue (QUAD) -a key strategic forum comprising like-minded democracies in the Asia Pacific: the United States, Japan, Australia, and India – aims to promote all inclusive Asia- Pacific region. Therefore, India’s increasing naval capabilities, mutual defense agreements with the United States and other Quad members (Australia and Japan), and its investment in revamping its naval infrastructure pose significant challenges to Pakistan’s maritime security, particularly in the Indian Ocean region (IOR).
Adding to Pakistan’s security concerns, is the AUKUS – the trilateral security arrangement – between Australia, United States and Britain- which has profound security concerns for Pakistan by circumventing Article II of Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits Non- Nuclear Weapons states from acquiring assistance in development of nuclear weapons. Australia is not a Nuclear weapon state still it will be provided with nuclear powered submarines, undermining the treaty’s integrity and setting precedence that could encourage nuclear proliferation in this region. Moreover, a similar trilateral security pact involving India, through INFRUS or AUKUS+, could enable India to augment its nuclear capabilities, which could even prompt a reconsideration of its “No-First-Use†nuclear policy. The precedent set by the NSG waiver granted to India manifests how strategic exceptions can be made, paving way for such alliances to enhance India’s defense and nuclear posture. Indian Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh, has also reinforced this concern, giving weight to Pakistan’s apprehensions. In the same spirit, Civil nuclear cooperation between US and India facilitates India in development of its nuclear program while receiving assured nuclear fuel from 46 countries. This deal leverages India by allowing it to keep eight reactors for military purposes, which could potentially enable it to divert uranium for nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the agreement does not require India to downsize its fissile material manufacturing, which poses serious security concern for Pakistan.
Multifaceted approach is required from Pakistan to navigate the thorny dynamics of Indo- Pacific region. In order to counterbalance India’s growing influence and presence in this region, Pakistan must enhance its naval capabilities, to protect key assets like the Gwadar Port and vital sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and design a comprehensive maritime policy which guarantees security of CPEC and its strategic assets.
Economically, the Indo-US strategic partnership adversely impacts Pakistan’s national exchequer as it compels Pakistan to enhance its defense expenditures to become qualitatively at par with India’s military advancements. Instead of engaging in an arms race, Pakistan aims to enhance its defense capabilities vis-a-vis India’s escalating military strength, pursuing to strike a balance in the region without falling into an unsustainable arms competition. Leveraging from its alliance with the United States, diplomatic clout of India has increased significantly, creating challenges for Pakistan at key international forums, as it was evident from its efforts to keep Pakistan on the financial action task force (FATF) grey list. In conclusion, the US Indo-Pacific Strategy poses significant security challenges to Pakistan, particularly in context with its historical tensions with India and the growing strategic partnership between US and India. While this strategy apparently seeks to challenge rise of China in the Asia-Pacific region, Pakistan finds itself caught at crossroads in this great power competition. To insulate its security vulnerabilities, Pakistan needs to diversify its diplomatic relations, focusing on its strengths in maritime domain and striking a careful balance in its relations with the United States and China.
This article was published in another form at: https://policyeast.com/us-asia-pacific-strategy-and-pakistans-security-concerns/
Ms Nawal Nawaz is Research Assistant at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
