Dr Rahat Iqbal and Murad Ali
Iran-Israel relations are on the brink of a potential conflict that could affect the greater geopolitics of the region. Iran’s missile strikes were on a response to Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1 this year, killing several officials and others. Senior Israeli officials considered the Iranian strikes as “revealing the true face†of Tehran. However, revealing a somewhat different reality, a military sociology professor at the Open University of Israel, Yagil Levy, argued that “Israel went too far in assassinating the Iranian general, probably in a diplomatic location.â€
According to US officials, in response to previous events, Israel carried out an operation against Iran in the early hours of Friday on April 19, 2024. The strike targeted at least one military installation situated outside Isfahan, approximately 75 miles south of Tehran. The strikes were directed towards a military base. Iranian media downplayed the severity of the attack, characterizing it as a minor incident involving a limited number of explosions and attributing the incident to infiltrators rather than acknowledging Israeli involvement. This indicates Iran’s reluctance to have a full-scale conflict with Israel. Additionally, the scale of the Israeli strikes was reportedly less as compared to the Iranian retaliation against Israel.
While this may be the policy of the two adversaries at present, in the volatile landscape of the Middle East, where tensions simmer and conflicts brew, the specter of a showdown between Iran and Israel looms ominously. Even though despite the saber-rattling and geopolitical maneuvering, both nations exercise caution and are aware of the cataclysmic consequences of what a full-fledged conflict would unleash.
About Iran, the prospect of engaging in war with Israel represents a perilous gambit with multifaceted repercussions. Firstly, such a move would ignite a hailstorm of diplomatic condemnation, isolating Iran on the world stage and imperiling its nuclear ambitions. The international community overwhelmingly supports Israel, which means that if a war were to break out between Iran and Israel, the former would face serious consequences, particularly concerning its nuclear program.
Moreover, the fallout from attacking Israel may invite swift and devastating retaliation from the United States and its allies, which Iran would hardly endure. The ripple effect would extend beyond the borders of Iran, disrupting engagements in neighboring states like Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon, destabilizing the region further, and eroding Iran’s influence.
The repercussions are not confined to geopolitics. Iran’s economic and diplomatic ties would suffer a severe blow, particularly with potential trading partners like India. Given India’s strategic allegiance to Israel, a conflict between Iran and Israel would likely prompt India to overtly align itself with Israel, jeopardizing Iran’s diplomatic and trade interests and exacerbating its isolation on the regional stage.
The specter of nuclear war looms large over any military confrontation between Iran and Israel. In the event of conflict, Iran faces the grim possibility of a nuclear strike from Israel, targeting its nuclear facilities and tilting the scales of war decisively against Iran. The potential for catastrophic loss of life and devastation underscores the recklessness of pursuing war as a viable option. Israel, too, treads cautiously in the face of escalating tensions with Iran, weighed down by its own strategic imperatives and geopolitical realities. While the temptation to confront Iran may be strong, Israel is mindful of the precarious balance it must maintain to safeguard its territorial ambitions and regional hegemony.
Israel’s vision of a greater Israel, encompassing territories such as the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and parts of Syria and Lebanon, convinces Tel Aviv not to engage in a protracted conflict with Iran. The pursuit of expansionism necessitates a delicate balance of diplomacy and deterrence, whereas the outright confrontation risks alienating potential allies and jeopardizing long-term objectives.
Furthermore, Israel’s calculus is influenced by the shifting sands of regional politics. Arab countries, once steadfast adversaries, are increasingly willing to engage with Israel on matters of mutual interest. However, a conflict with Iran threatens to unravel these fragile alliances, as demonstrated by recent refusal of Saudi Arabia and the United Aran Emirates to provide airspace for potential strikes against Iran.
The involvement of major powers like Russia and the US would introduce further complexity to the situation. Should a war erupt, the Middle East may once again become a battleground, drawing in external actors and exacerbating the existing chaos. With Iraq and Iran experiencing the brunt of the conflict, Hezbollah in Lebanon poised to resume hostilities, and Syria caught amidst the crossfire, the region could face an overwhelming and unmanageable crisis. In this volatile scenario, it is imperative to emphasize the necessity of restraint. The toll of war, in terms of human lives and geopolitical stability is too significant to bear. Instead, prioritizing diplomacy offers a viable pathway towards de-escalation and constructive dialogue. Only through concerted efforts of cooperation and compromise can the specter of conflict be dispelled, thereby paving the way for a more peaceful and prosperous future for the region.
This article was published in another form at https://stratheia.com/why-iran-and-israel-tread-carefully/
Dr Rahat Iqbal is Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
Mr Murad Ali is a Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad
