Pakistan is facing a paradox in terms of water security: at one side there are catastrophic floods in all parts of the country and at the other extreme shortage of water in urban and rural parts of the country alike. The central argument of this piece is that integrating peaceful nuclear technologies, such as desalination, isotope hydrology, and nuclear-enabled flood forecasting, into Pakistan’s Blue Economy Strategy is essential. By leveraging these nuclear tools, Pakistan can achieve resilient water security and sustainable development.
Changing Weather Patterns and the Scarcity-Excess Paradox in Pakistan
Climate change has altered the seasonal rhythms and has made floods the new normal in the country. Once unprecedented climate events such as cloudbursts, erratic glacial melting, and prolonged heavy rainfall are now occurring more frequently and excessively. Once predictable monsoon, has now become erratic, bringing intense rainfall in short durations. This has severely inundated the existing climate disaster management of the country. Concurrently, the rapid glacial melt has disrupted the river flow patterns and increased the risk of glacial lake upsurge floods (GLOFs). These changes have heightened the climate vulnerability of Pakistan, making it more susceptible to sudden floods, drastic droughts which require technology-driven innovation to mitigate the climate catastrophes.
The disastrous evolution of the country’s climate reality has caused a scarcity-excess paradox. The unpredictable spell of monsoon showers often lead to widespread flooding. According to the latest studies by the World Weather Attribution Consortium this year alone, Pakistan witnessed 10-15 times more rainfall than average this year, resulting in unprecedented destruction. This was followed by the erratic glacial melt in the Himalayas and Karakoram, which further exacerbated the stir in the Indus River.
In contrast, the maritime resilience of the country is challenged by the acute water shortage. The ‘scarcity’ of the scarcity-excess paradox is manifested in the country’s main water tributaries. During spring 2025, the Mangla and Tarbela hit ‘dead-levels’ affecting hydropower and irrigation. Geopolitics added precarity to this scenario, as the abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) by New Delhi has increased the chances of the upper riparian, India, manipulating with the river inflows to Pakistan. Unilateral water weaponization can manipulate 80% of Pakistan’s water access, which was earlier guaranteed by the IWT. Future prospects appear increasingly bleak with the unchecked aquifer extraction and weak recharge in the major cities such as Karachi, Rawalpindi, Quetta, and Lahore, where the groundwater has reportedly declined up to 3-4 feet. This acute shortage has also translated into the deterioration of the Indus Delta, which has now shrunk to just 600,000 hectares.
Peaceful Nuclear Application as a Strategic Solution
Peaceful nuclear applications can help alleviate the bleak water scenario and enhance the maritime resilience of Pakistan. Nuclear-powered desalination can not only solve the domestic water crisis but also ensure an unlimited water supply for industrial projects. Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, faces a shortfall of 600 million gallons. The situation is not different in Gwadar, which is envisioned as a maritime hub of the promising China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistan has a nuclear desalination plant at Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP), which involves a 137 MW CANDU nuclear reactor to desalinate seawater through the Multi-effect Distillation (MED) process. However, the modest capacity of the plant (1,600 cubic meters) is not enough to meet the city’s demand. Where it shows a precedent of nuclear technologies successfully combating water shortage, it necessitates scaling up their capacity to attain a significant impact. Globally, nuclear-powered desalination plants are also considered an integral component of the water strategies, i.e., Russian floating nuclear desalination units in the Arctic. Moreover, Kazakhstan and the UAE have recognized nuclear power as a significant element of their water strategies.
Through a precise groundwater map generated using isotope hydrology, authorities can enforce effective urban water strategies. This nuclear technique can trace the water molecules and differentiate between the renewable and fossil groundwater. Water levels are depleting in the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad due to extravagant water extraction. Measurement of groundwater reserves can prevent the irreversible damage caused by unplanned aquifer extraction. Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) collaborates with the international atomic energy agency (IAEA) and runs a water management excellence center. PEAC, Pakistan Space And Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), and provincial authorities can implement this effective nuclear-powered strategy and effectively manage the urban water crisis.
Policy Implications and the Blue Economy Strategy
Role of nuclear in the hydro crisis of Pakistan is not limited to managing the scarcity; it is equally essential to deal with the excess side of the scarcity-access paradox. Where floods have become a new normal in Pakistan, smart nuclear applications can result in better response mechanisms. The devastating floods and glacial lake outbursts (GLOFs) exposed limitations of the prevailing conventional disaster management system. Lack of coordination among the federal, provincial, and local administrations was manifested in the form of last-minute mosque warnings that flood-hit communities received. This catastrophe is likely to be more tragic in the wake of weakened water data sharing in the context of abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which resulted into limited information about the water information of 80% of Pakistan’s waters. Nuclear-enabled tools, including hydrological modeling, tracer techniques, and satellite remote sensing, can be helpful. These techniques can provide real-time water data with higher accuracy and track GLOFs. Such a timely flood forecast also mitigates the risks of flood contamination, which happened during urban flooding in Karachi, where stormwater flushed sewage. These challenges necessitate the integration of innovative and tech-driven approaches to the climate disaster management system.
In summary, peaceful nuclear technologies such as nuclear desalination, isotope hydrology, and nuclear-enabled early flood warning systems must anchor Pakistan’s water and maritime strategies. Making this unified nuclear approach central is the only way to address both water scarcity and flood risks, achieving national resilience. The persistent failure of conventional water strategies highlights the urgent need for a nuclear-centered, integrated water security solution. Traditional approaches alone cannot address Pakistan’s acute water paradox. The core assertion of this text is that nuclear hydrological applications i.e. scalable and internationally proven, must form the backbone of Pakistan’s water security and maritime sustainability. By embracing nuclear desalination, isotope hydrology, and nuclear-enabled flood prediction, Pakistan can ensure resilience and prosperity in a climate-challenged era. Adopting the nuclear option is not just beneficial for the blue economy as it is indispensable.
This article was published in the hardcopy archives of National Institute of Maritime Affairs, Islamabad
Ms Anam Murad Khan is Research Assistant at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
