Abstract
This research paper explores the ongoing strategic competition between the United States (U.S.), China, and Russia in the development and proliferation of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). It introduces ‘Strategic Funneling’ as an analytical approach that explains how states accelerate military modernization by concentrating resources, institutions, and innovation toward specific technological objectives. The study argues that this approach provides a useful analytical framework for examining how great powers prioritize resources, innovation, and policy instruments to accelerate LAWS development through both vertical and horizontal proliferation. In doing so, it contributes to the growing literature on military AI, strategic competition, and emerging military technologies. The study employs qualitative analysis of primary and secondary sources, including Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) documents, official government publications, academic literature, and policy reports, to examine patterns of LAWS development, proliferation, and governance among the selected case studies. Both types of proliferation, i.e., horizontal and vertical, were examined through the lens of strategic funneling, which each country used and considered in the process. This in-depth study helps identify artificial intelligence (AI) as a key element of LAWS. The nexus between AI and LAWS – which includes the enabling, governance, deployment, and proliferation of these weapon systems – is currently under discussion. The findings in this study suggest that the U.S. emphasized technological dominance, China pursues LAWS under its peaceful rise policy, and Russia relies on asymmetric innovation and adaptive procurement. One common feature is that they are all accelerating their acquisition of LAWS through proliferation.
This research paper was published by the BTTN Journal. The full paper can be read here https://bttn.org.pk/ojs/index.php/BTTN_Journal/article/view/271
Mr Muhammad Ali Baig is Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
