After India became a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in 2016, it has increased its missile exports and has extended its market for defence exports, because of its greater access to advance missile technology. The MTCR’s membership has enhanced India’s credibility as an arms exporter, providing access to wider range of potential buyers. This can be seen from India’s potential missile and defence collaborations with states like UAE, Philippians, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia.
India and Philippines are set to sign a $200 million missile deal in 2025-26, that will include Akash missile which is a short range surface-to-air ballistic missile, and has a range of 25 kms. This is the second defence venture between Manila and New Dehli, first being acquisition of missile systems in 2022 worth $375 million from India. The new developments show India’s rise in the international defence market.
To enhance its defence capabilities, India has testes robustly tested various missile systems. In March 2024, India has successfully tested nuclear capable ICBM Agni-5 missile that has range of 5,000 kms. This missile is capable of Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV), and has elevated India’s status as it enters the group of states that can fire multiple warheads form a single ICBM. In November 2024, India tested long-range hypersonic missile successfully, that can mark targets surpassing 1,500 kms. This missile is indigenously developed and puts India in the league of just a few countries that have developed this advance technology.
In its Defence Day parade in January 2025, India publicised the mass production of quasi-ballistic, Pralay missile having a range of 150-500 kms and can carry payload of 500-1000 kgs, that can maneuver while keeping a low trajectory. This is a short-range surface-to-surface tactical conventional missile and is expected to be deployed near Pakistani and Chinese borders. Moreover, there are media reports that Armenia is interested in buying these missiles from India.
According to media reports India issued a Notice to Airmen (NATOM) in early 2025 for potential missile tests in the Bay of Bengal. It is anticipated that this NATOM was conducting tests of Agni-5MII, an ICBM that has MIRV technology with a range exceeding above 5,000 kms. If tested successfully the Agni-5MII will modernize Indian military, advance Indian missile program, will give India an edge over the regional competitors, and will enhance India’s status in shaping the global security dynamics.
Along withe the modernization of its missile program, the Missile Technology Control Regime’s (MTCR) membership granted to India in 2016 has immensely boosted India’s defence ties with various states. MTCR focuses on missiles only, but Indian defence exports are beyond just missiles. It includes broader range of equipment and services; the Indian defence exports are estimated to rise to 36,500 Indian cores by 2025. Moreover, India is actively pursuing its partnership with Russia, US, France and Israel. All these partnerships often focus on joint development and production of defence equipment, joint productions, transfer of technology, and military exercises.
The growing Indian missile capabilities specifically posing the challenge of increased regional competition, puts Pakistan in a position where it needs to maintain the balance of power in the region via upgrading its defence capabilities. The Indo-Philippine defence ties can be translated as a shift in alliance in the Pak-Philipines equation that has been traditionally warm. It can force Pakistan to look out for developing closer ties with other states to counter this new emerging alliance. The technological advancement India has achieved via Akash missile can push Pakistan to invest in developing same capabilities to counter any future Indian threat. The selling of Akash missile technology to Philippines can be viewed in the light of India’s attempt to expand its strategic footprint at the regional and global level. Pakistan then needs to reassess its own strategic alliances and defense posture. Growing Indian missile and defense ambitions will have repercussions on peace and stability both at the regional and global level. India’s growing missile ranges, in the case of ICBMs, will be perceived by China as an emerging threat, which can escalate tensions between these two states. The mutual perception of threat by China and Pakistan has the possibility of driving these two nations closer together. This is certainly not something the United States desires.
This article was published in another form at https://globalsecurityreview.com/indias-missile-program-a-threat-to-regional-and-global-peace-and-stability/
Dr Anum Riaz is Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad.
