Executive Summary
This policy brief analyzes the pre-war drivers, key strategic aspirations of the actors involved, and post-war trajectories of the 2026 U.S.-Israel-Iran war. The scope of the war has engulfed the entire region and would shape new regional realities after the end of hostilities. The complex nature of regional dynamics means the future order would be shaped by enduring structural drivers and a limited number of high-impact uncertainties. The future of Middle Eastern geostrategic order after the end of the war would not converge towards a single, strategic equilibrium.
The war was not triggered by a single incident but resulted from a convergence of several factors: collapse of nuclear diplomacy, intensifying regional rivalries, and the normalization of force as statecraft. The Strait of Hormuz emerged as a central economic and geopolitical flashpoint, while Israel’s regional military posture and Washington’s regime-change ambitions further escalated tensions. The issue of Iran’s nuclear programme underlay the U.S.-Iran tensions.
Post-war dynamics are defined by fundamentally incompatible objectives. The U.S. and Israel seek the dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, while Iran prioritize regime survival, strategic deterrence and sanctions relief. Gulf states demand stability and energy flows. In all this, Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator seeking peace and regional stability.
The future regional order will be driven by three structural variables: Iran’s nuclear decision (restraint vs. weaponization), the strategic status of the Strait of Hormuz, and evolving Middle East dynamics. These drivers produce multiple plausible scenarios ranging from managed stability to a fragmented arms race, with varying levels of cooperation or discord.
Overall, the region is entering a phase of “competitive fragmentation,” characterized by persistent instability, technological militarization, and weakened international norms. A durable settlement remains contingent on a negotiated nuclear framework, stabilization of maritime security in Hormuz, and sustained multilateral diplomacy – within which Pakistan’s mediatory role remains a critical enabling factor.
