Nawal Nawaz

Ms Nawal Nawaz is Research Assistant at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.

The international nuclear order has been transforming, witnessing both vertical and horizontal proliferation. Arms control arrangements have already been dismantled with the breakdown of New START between Russia and the United States (US) on 5 February 2026, and after the Iran-US war in the Middle East, the trust deficit has widened among NATO member allies regarding US security commitments. Moreover, the predatory approach of the Trump administration regarding the threat of annexation of Greenland from its NATO member ally, Denmark, engenders doubts among European NATO allies regarding the reliance on the US security guarantee.

NATO’s biggest challenge may no longer be Russia’s military power, but uncertainty over the Alliance’s political cohesion. The 2026 Ankara Summit marked a transformation in NATO’s strategic trajectory: moving from pledging defence spending to producing the military capabilities required for deterrence. But the Alliance’s military consolidation is happening amid unprecedented questions about transatlantic political cohesion.

On Aug 7, Pakistan, Turkiye, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) signed a mutual defense agreement, committing the three nations to treat “an armed attack against one as an attack against all”. The significance of the Mecca defense pact can be gauged from the fact that this trilateral defense pact brings together a leading oil-exporting nation- KSA- NATO’s second-largest army-Ankara, and the only Muslim nuclear-armed state- Pakistan, spanning the three countries across the Middle East, South Asia, and Europe.