Generative AI and Deterrence Stability: A Worst-Case Scenario
INDIAN MILITARY COMMAND CENTER – NIGHT of 28th May 2028
An Indian high ranking military officer General sends a message to an Indian Commander: Pakistan has initiated a preemptive strike. Prepare for a retaliatory strike. THIS IS NOT A DRILL!
(launch time between both India and Pakistan is a few minutes, hence, the commanders don’t have time for verification and decide to launch a retaliatory strike)
PM HOUSE PAKISTAN
A high-ranking Pakistanis military officer contacts Pakistan’s Prime Minister: India has initiated a nuclear strike. Immediate response required! What to do Sir?
PM: What are we waiting for? These weapons are of last resort, it is the question of our survival. Proceed with a counterstrike!
PAKISTAN’S MILITARY COMMAND CENTER
Pakistan proceeds to counterstrike protocols.
OVER SOUTH ASIA – NIGHT
Missiles crossing borders between India and Pakistan as world hurtles towards a nuclear catastrophe in South Asia!
END SCENE!
TITLE IN RED
High ranking general’s message to an Indian commander was made from GENERATIVE AI
The Role of Generative AI in Modern Warfare
The use of Generative AI by an adversary or a third party can impact deterrence stability between India and Pakistan. In a worst-case scenario, it could trigger a nuclear war – similar to the scene mentioned above. This is termed as hyper-personalization through Generative AI where the message is tailored for specific individuals which can also include decisionmakers of a state.
Traditionally, content and information generation were based on human creativity. However, in present time, generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being considered as a tool for digital transformation. Generative AI is a deep learning model which has the capability to generate synthetic media including text, video and audio appertaining to data it has been trained upon.
Perception Building and the Escalation of Crises
In a deterrence framework, narrative/perception building as well as public perceptions are very crucial. Similarly, communication of deterrence can also be achieved through perception-building of your adversary about a state’s capabilities and credibility of its nuclear weapons. India has embarked upon creating misperceptions regarding Pakistan’s nuclear program. Recently, Ambassador Munir Akram, at the UNSC’s high level debate, stated that India is actively pursuing a state-led disinformation campaign to malign Pakistan. He was referring to recent EU Disinfo lab’s reports on how India is using fake NGO’s, think tanks, media outlets and international organizations to malign Pakistan. Similarly, it is possible that India may use Generative AI to manipulate public opinion, thereby, creating misperceptions amongst Pakistan’s public. This could make the people, as well as the government of both India and Pakistan to separate facts from fiction especially in a crisis situation. Hence, AI driven narratives could push both countries to a crisis leading to warfighting.
Misinformation and Crisis Management Challenges in South Asia
Misinformation through generative AI can make crisis management and escalation dominance between India and Pakistan much more difficult. According to Heather Williams and Alexi Drew, the traditional Kahn escalation ladder has transformed into a web across domains with multiple actors and alliances, especially in the age of social media. In South Asia, due to mated warheads and cannasterization of missiles by India, coupled with geographical contiguity with Pakistan, nuclear use may become ultimate escalation within minutes – without a ladder or a web. Social media could be a threat multiplier and can become lethal with the use of generative AI. Although, tweets are unlikely to independently start a crisis, tweets from government officials of India and Pakistan could be fabricated through utilizing hacking and generative AI to escalate any ongoing crisis.
Risks of Generative AI in Command and Control Systems
While Indian nuclear weapons may have an effective command and control where nuclear weapons have nuclear safety and security mechanisms, we still witnessed ‘Brahmos missile crisis’ in 2022. Inadvertent of accidental, the launch of the missile could trigger a reactionary strike by Pakistan as the missile is dual capable. Furthermore, this fog of war could undermine strategic stability. As a Group Captain was blamed for the launch, many commanders like him, who may be capable of launching nuclear missiles even on Indian nuclear submarines could be manipulated via high level orders created through generative AI.
False Flag Operations and Strategic Escalation
India has also opted for adventurism against Pakistan through its false flag operations and surgical strikes. Pakistan has adopted a conventional strategy of quid-pro-quo plus as a conventional response to such Indian limited strike. However, malicious false flag operations through disinformation and fake news by India to garner public support for electoral gains and domestic politics can result in crisis escalation in such a competitive strategic environment. It is due to mistrust within adversarial relationship of India and Pakistan.
The Need for Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) in AI
There is a dire need for risk reduction and CBMs between India and Pakistan in the domain of AI. However, the appetite for CBMs and dialogue on Indian side is non-existent. India and Pakistan may establish bilateral AI incident reporting and mitigation centers to counter use of AI to induce false alarms and other escalatory actions. Furthermore, there is a need for India and Pakistan to further opt for unilateral AI security and regulation measures especially for inter-organiazational and inter-state strategic communications. If top trajectories including U.S., China and Russia opt for an arms control related to Generative AI, low trajectories including India and Pakistan may be persuaded to follow suit, and this will help establish a universal AI Arms Control Regime regarding use of AI for military purposes.
Generative AI and Deterrence Stability: A Scenario for De-escalation
INDIAN MILITARY COMMAND CENTER – NIGHT of 28th May 2028
An Indian high ranking military officer General sends a message to an Indian Commander: Pakistan has initiated a preemptive strike. Prepare for a retaliatory strike. THIS IS NOT A DRILL!
(Launch time between both India and Pakistan is a few minutes, hence, the commanders don’t have time for verification and need to decide to launch a retaliatory strike. He calls the command center to urgently use and verify through the hotline!)
PM HOUSE PAKISTAN
Indian PM calls Pakistan’s PM on the hotline:
Indian PM: Have you launched nuclear weapons?
Pakistan’s PM: Not at all. This is fake news!
Indian PM informs India’s military command center
India decides not to use nuclear weapons.
OVER SOUTH ASIA – NIGHT
A nuclear catastrophe in South Asia was averted because of the use of CBMs!END SCENE!
This article was published in another form at https://globalsecurityreview.com/generative-artificial-intelligence-and-deterrence-stability-between-india-and-pakistan/
Ms Anum A. Khan is Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
