The contours of the emerging world order are neither stable nor rules-based. Instead, they are increasingly shaped by contested narratives, regional asymmetries and increasingly fragmented technological ecosystems. This shifting landscape reveals widening incongruities in global governance, deepening geopolitical rivalries, minilaterals, as well as erosion of multilateralism at a time it is needed most. The war in Ukraine and genocide in Gaza, the paralysis of the UNSC, the breakdown of arms-control mechanisms, and the weaponization of emerging and disruptive technologies collectively demonstrate that the old order is crumbling and without a coherent replacement.
Ukraine, Iran, Selective Principles, and the Erosion of Western Legitimacy
The Ukraine war is an example of lack of resolution of dispute through dialogue and diplomacy. In fact, the Russia-Ukraine war marks a dangerous departure from diplomatic crisis-management norms. It has seen the selective application of international law by major powers. The Western powers tried to coerce Russia by providing military assistance to Kyiv, imposing sanctions, and organizing Moscow’s diplomatic isolation. Nevertheless, the same states show little commitment to confront equally grave humanitarian disasters when their allies are involved.
Most of the Global South refused to align fully with the Western position on Ukraine. Because of military-nuclear exceptionalism, the Global South’s position on Ukraine signals a return of dissatisfaction as well as strategic autonomy vis-à-vis the West. Majority of states across Africa, Asia and Latin America have underscored the urgent need for diplomacy rather than bloc politics for resolving the Russia- Ukraine crisis.
Furthermore, the unprovoked Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities further eroded trust in Western rule-based order. It shows that the Western-led order is applied inconsistently, undermining their own claims to leadership. This reality is driving the return of multipolarity, a development seen with favour by the large majority of states, including Pakistan.
Gaza: Collapse of Multilateral Credibility
Israel’s war on Gaza, seen as genocide, has further exposed the crisis of the rules-based order. Since 2023, Israel has bombed and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians while Palestine has been pushed to the brink of famine. The US has, time and again, vetoed UNSC resolutions to put an end to Israeli atrocities.
The perception of Western double standards has never been more visible. While Russia -Ukraine case is condemned for Ukraine, there is a blind eye towards Israel’s war on Gaza.
The UN and other multilateral bodies are going through a phase of paralysis which is an indication of the weakening international institutionalism. It results in the sidelining of collective multilateral mechanisms by states, in turn, adoption of unilaterals or minilaterals. This attrition is reinforced by a expanding global anti-globalist paradigm, raising serious questions about the legitimacy of the liberal international order itself.
U.S.-China Contestation and the Weaponisation of Peaceful Development
Another defining feature of the new order is the attempt to reduce China’s peaceful economic rise to a security challenge only. Though the US National Security Strategy 2025 terms China as an economic rather than strategic rival, many in China do not view the shift in language necessarily as a retreat. Similarly, the US is further restricting its semiconductor and AI export controls while also pressurizing Netherlands and Japan to restrict chip-making equipment’s export to China to counter China’s AI tech development.
On the other hand, the US does not allow access of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to certain countries, while exporting semiconductor and AI-enabled technologies to India. This is done through initiatives including ‘U.S.-India AI Initiative’, ‘Initiative on Critical & Emerging Technology (ICET)’ among others. The bifurcation of technology into competing blocs especially in AI, cyber capabilities and semiconductors risks pulling developing countries into rival spheres. Pakistan’s challenge will be navigating these tech-blocs when India continues to benefit from preferential access to AI, nuclear and military deals.
The power dynamics in the global world order are changing. While past powers combined economic and military might, Chinese rise is focused on economic interdependence as a responsible stakeholder rather than a revisionist power.
India’s Militarisation and Western Support: A Rising Regional Imbalance
The emerging order is also shaped by India’s accelerated militarization, often enabled by Western states, seeking to bolster New Delhi as a counterweight to China. India’s acquisition of advanced missile systems, expanding naval capabilities and access to emerging technologies either bilaterally or through minilaterals (QUAD, I2U2 etc.) bolsters India as a regional hegemon. Through its integration in U.S.-led Indo-Pacific architectures, it attempts to use its military and nuclear capabilities vis-à-vis Pakistan. Indian atrocities in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJ&K), earlier false flag operations and the May 2025 short war reflect Indian aggressive posture towards Pakistan. Nevertheless, the onus of restraint and responsibility is always put on Pakistan. Such calls often turn a blind eye towards growing regional disparities as a result of Western exceptionalism, thereby impacting strategic stability in the region – an outcome Pakistan views with deep concern.
Arms Control Breakdown and the Return of Great-Power Nuclear Militarism
In the current geo-strategic landscape, nuclear weapons are returning to center of global strategic thinking. This return is manifested in the suspension of the New START Treaty (expiring in Feb 2026) and the US expansion and modernization of its nuclear weapons programme. This has tilted the world toward an unconstrained global nuclear order. Moreover, Indo-US nuclear deal also has cascading effects on regional instabilities.
The risks of miscalculation grow – even more than at any point since the Cold War. It is due to modernization of nuclear arsenals including dual-use delivery platforms, hypersonic weapons, autonomous systems, and AI-enabled command and control. The Integration of EDTs including AI in military domain are bringing about the doctrinal shifts of nuclear weapon states. These systems do not only minimize decision making time but may also introduce further ambiguity within threat perception calculus of states with adversarial relations. Furthermore, the line between civilian and military intent has been blurred due to the acquisition of digital and dual use technologies. Such dual use technologies have made easier the concealment, acquisition, modernization and proliferation of sensitive capabilities. This, in turn, has fueled the possibility of a global arms race(s) amid suspension of global arms control measures.
When EDTs diffuse in the region, they further intensify regional rivalries especially within five nuclear flashpoints which include Gaza, Ukraine, Taiwan Strait, Korean Peninsula and Kashmir. In such scenarios, there is a greater possibility of states becoming hedgers because of uncertainties concerning their security. States opt for nuclear hedging through acquiring latent nuclear capabilities which may include preferring uranium enrichment, spent fuel reprocessing ornaval propulsion systems. This allows them to stay closer to the breakout point and serves as a virtual deterrent vis-a-vis their adversaries. This also allows them to stay within the compliance of the nuclear non-proliferation regime (NPR) while simultaneously preserving strategic options. Such latent capabilities are also used as bargaining tools to extract concessions as well as security guarantees. In the meantime, global nuclear governance is unable to keep pace with rapid technological changes. This makes verification and safeguard mechanisms, inspections and export-control lists fall behind maturation of EDTS, further increasing gaps in non-proliferation and disarmament. This is, overall, an unstable and unequal landscape where the norms, institutions, and guarantees of the old order are collapsing but no credible alternatives have yet emerged. The new world order is already upon us: contested, uneven, and increasingly shaped by the technologies and rivalries of great powers. In the Global South, Pakistan, as a leader, will need to work with diplomatic agility, strategic clarity and its long-standing commitment to principled multipolarity.
This article was published in another form at https://www.thefridaytimes.com/30-Dec-2025/emerging-world-order-2026-fragmented-militarised-unequal
Ms Anum A. Khan is Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
