The Istanbul talks between Islamabad and Kabul, followed by the first round held in Doha, were another effort to escalate tensions along the western borders. The talks were mediated by Türkiye and Qatar as a constructive diplomatic engagement. The dialogue exposed the reality that the circumstances have become more fragile. Since the Taliban 2.0 came into power in Afghanistan on August 15th 2021, there has been a surge in terrorist attacks from Afghan soil inside Pakistan. Pakistan showed strategic restraint and tried to engage the Taliban regime diplomatically, but the efforts remained futile. The main dilemma for Pakistan is to balance its relations with the Taliban regime and protect its territory from cross-border terrorist attacks. During the frequent rising tensions, the Istanbul dialogue started on 25th October 2025, bringing into focus that there is a need for a long-lasting agreement for peace.
The dialogue began in Doha after serious border fighting, which led Qatar and Türkiye to bring both countries back to the table. Both sides agreed to stop fighting for two days on 15 October, and it was widely reported at the time. But the ceasefire ended quickly. Fighting started again in North Waziristan, Spin Boldak and Chaman, stopping trade and making it harder for people to earn. The second round was to implement the Doha agreement, but the Taliban avoided taking any tangible measures against terrorist operatives and tried to back out of the commitments they had undertaken during the first round of negotiations. However, Pakistan stayed firm on its core demand of concrete actions against terrorist activities in Afghanistan and established a strong monitoring mechanism to curb their activities.
During the third round in Istanbul on 28th October, Islamabad engaged again with a constructive approach to focus on the establishment of an effective monitoring mechanism. The Afghan side tries to dilute the focus from the main issue of terrorism and refuses the external oversight of the militant areas, arguing that it would be an interference in their sovereignty. Pakistan strongly rejects assertions and insinuations by the Taliban when the UN reports clearly show that terrorist groups are freely operating from the Afghan territory. The Taliban regime should honour its commitment not to allow its territory for terrorist activities and play its role in achieving peace and stability in the region. Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups continue launching attacks inside Pakistan from Afghan territory. The Istanbul talk ended without any agreement on the border issues and militancy. Hence, the dialogue did not fix the major issues behind the conflict.
Due to long-standing political and structural issues, the peace process is facing challenges. The first important challenge is the misinterpretation between the two states. The Taliban regime misinterprets the Pakistani terrorists in Afghanistan as refugees. After Pakistan’s operation Zarb e Azab in 2015, TTP terrorists fled to Afghanistan and set up their camps there, but the Taliban refuses to hand them over to Pakistan and claims they cannot control them. Afghanistan claims Pakistan is making the threat look bigger than it is and failing to manage its border. The situation worsens because some of the worst attacks in Pakistan recently were carried out by terrorists operating from Afghanistan. One big example is the blast at the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) mosque in Peshawar Police Lines. In which more than 80 people were killed, and the attack was traced back to the TTP fighters in Afghanistan.
The next challenge is that Pakistan is sceptical of the Afghan government’s will to curb the evil of terrorism. Taliban’s hesitation in taking concrete actions against the TTP shows a lack of willpower to stop acting against the TTP and its affiliates. Taliban’s avoidance of dealing with the main issue of terrorism shows their inability to stop TTP attacks on Pakistan from Afghanistan soil. Afghanistan should translate their MoFA statements into practical implementations within its country by destroying the growing terrorist groups on its soil.
The other big challenge is that it affects the local economies and people. The outbreak of the shelling on the border trade comes to a halt. It forces families to evacuate their houses, and the already weak border economy becomes more unstable. The October violence closed trade routes and forced people to flee their homes. Pakistan, which is already struggling with economic challenges lost of border trade has deepened its problems. The ongoing instability endangers Afghanistan’s already weak economy and makes it difficult to govern properly.
For moving ahead, Pakistan and Afghanistan need a clear and realistic strategy. They should initiate collaborative monitoring and regular transparent intelligence exchange. With the help of Qatar and Türkiye, Pakistan and Afghanistan can run a joint system, which leads both countries to track the militant activities without damaging Afghanistan’s sovereignty. There is already an example of outside help, like Qatar and Türkiye; external support is not new.
Modern technology must be used to improve border security. Pakistan’s fences have reduced illegal crossings but have not fully stopped militants from entering. Using a mix of surveillance tools and quick response teams can significantly block militants from crossing. Pakistan needs to maintain its current security operations, including success in Hassan Khel, and at the same time engage in diplomacy. Islamabad would negotiate but must draw clear red lines to protect its sovereignty. The cooperation between both states will increase when they recognise that conflict harms them more than compromise. The Istanbul dialogue didn’t resolve the conflict, but it clarified more options for future decisions. Achieving stability will need strong political will, accountable actions and gradual trust building. Whether the two sides move toward cooperation or confrontation depends on their commitment to the next steps.
This article was published in another form at https://stratheia.com/the-istanbul-talks-and-pakistans-afghan-dilemma/
Shahwana Binte Sohail is is Research Assistant at the Centre for International Strategic Studies Islamabad.
