Evolving Missile Technologies in South Asia: Is there a Right Way Forward?

There were eventful developments last year regarding missile technologies in South Asia. India conducted a total of fourteen missile tests including cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles. At the start of 2024, in March, India successfully tested Agni-V missile equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology. By the end of the year, in November, India tested a long-range hypersonic missile, becoming one of the few countries to possess the technology. It also conducted launch of K4 Submarine Launch Ballistic Missile (SLBM) and deployed it on INS Arighaat, thus providing India with a capability to conduct military operations in the Bay of Bengal. India also tested an improved version of Nirbhay cruise missile that has a range of around 1000km and can be an important component of newly developed Indian Integrated Rocket Force. Furthermore, it also tested its Phase-II Ballistic missile defense system. These missile tests highlight the growing Indian missile arsenal both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Pakistan, on the other hand, conducted test of Fatah-II rocket system and re-tested Shaheen-II missile. Fatah-II is a rocket guided small range ballistic missile that can hit its targets with precision. Shahen-II has a range of 2000 km was tested to improve its accuracy and enhance survivability. Towards the end of year, Washington sanctioned the Pakistan missile program, alleging that Islamabad is building missiles that can reach the United States, a claim refuted vehemently by Pakistan.

Indian Missile Tests

Agni-V and MIRV

Agni-V is an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), with a range of more than 7000km. MIRV technology can be used against BMD systems but also are a potent counterforce weapon. They can be utilized as first-strike option, exponentially increasing the force ratio for an attack by increasing the numerical advantage over the defending force. They can also be utilized to destroy hardened targets by using multiple warheads within a circle of a few kilometers. This development is contributing towards changing Indian nuclear posture from a credible minimum deterrent to a warfighting posture vis-à-vis Pakistan. This development also reinforces Pakistan’s claim of Indian shift from a no-first-use to a comprehensive first strike strategy.

Hypersonic Cruise Missile

Indian test of a long-range hypersonic cruise missile has put it into a club of selected few countries. The missile has a range of more than 1500km and can further compress the already existing short reaction time between India and Pakistan. Hypersonic weapons can provide India with an enhanced capability to conduct precision strikes during a crisis. They can be used to target nuclear command and control centers, conventional or other strategic assets using a conventional payload i.e. without breaking the nuclear taboo. In short, the use of long-range conventional hypersonic missiles during a crisis can further increase the risks of nuclear use in the region.

K-4 SLBM

K-4 is a SLBM that has a range of 3500km and is deployed on INS Arighaat providing India with an enhanced second-strike capability. It is a major improvement over K-15 that only has a range of 700km. This would provide India with a capability to strike all of the Pakistan territory while operating from the Bay of Bengal and Adaman and Nicobar Islands. With the development of MIRV technology, India can also utilize it for its K-4 missile further enhancing its capability. India has now commissioned two nuclear submarines INS Arihant and INS Arighaat, with a third one INS Aridhaman to be inducted this year. Moreover, India also has a fleet of 17 Diesel-electric attack Submarines (SSKs). India has also signed a ‘ten year lease agreement’ with Russia for another Akula class fast attack submarine to be transferred to India by 2025. India also plans to build a fleet of six Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarines (SSNs) and has given go-ahead for the first two. This growing submarine fleet of India in contrast to Pakistan can disturb the mutually assured destruction (MAD) equation in South Asia.

Nirbhay Cruise Missile and Integrated Rocket Force

India has also tested a Long Range Land Attack Cruise Missile (LRLACM) that has a range of more than 1000km and has been described by DRDO officials as a new variant of Nirbhay Cruise missile. India has established an Integrated Rocket Force (IRF) to enhance its conventional prowess and capability to conduct non-contact warfare. IRF would comprise mainly of Pralay missiles – India already has 120 of them and plans to induct 250 more. The range of Pralay missile is between 150-500 km, making them tactical missiles which can be used on the battlefield. Besides Pralay, IRF would also compromise the BrahMos, LRLACM, and Nirbhay missiles to provide India with cost-effective measures compared to heavy military deployments or air force involvement. They can also be used for surgical strikes, as its previous adventure with Pakistan in 2019 resulted in the loss of an aircraft. This development, however, can weaken crisis stability in the region because the use of missiles has not been a norm between India and Pakistan and any such precedent would only further lower the threshold of use of force between the two states.

Phase II Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) Interceptor

The test of Phase-II Air Defence (AD) endo-atmospheric missile indicates that Indian indigenous BMD system is in an advanced phase. The reported range of missile is 5000km providing India with the capability to intercept adversary’s missile in its terminal stage. Indian development of indigenous BMD system alongside S-400 from Russia can increase its sense of false security – to defend against Pakistan’s nuclear force. The development of Indian BMD system is a matter of concern for Pakistan as these systems can protect against residual missile force of Islamabad if New Delhi conducts a first-strike. This false sense of security can exacerbate crisis instability in the region putting Pakistan in a ‘use-it or lose-it’ dilemma in future crisis.

Pakistan’s Missile Developments

Pakistan’s strategic calculus is India-centric and it has time and again reiterated that its nuclear capabilities are only to deter threats from New Delhi. Pakistan’s missile developments are qualitative aimed to only enhance the survivability of its nuclear forces. To ensure the credibility of its nuclear forces, the missile systems of Pakistan are in line with its policy of full spectrum deterrence under the broader principle of credible minimum deterrence. Moreover, Pakistan’s missile program has been hit by American sanctions towards the end of year 2024. The claim that it is developing a nuclear missile capable of reaching the United States has been refuted in an official statement by the Foreign Office of Pakistan. The view in Islamabad is that these sanctions would only deepen the already increasing missile gap in South Asia hampering Pakistan’s efforts to maintain strategic stability vis-à-vis India.

Fatah-II has been developed by Pakistan to provide it with the capability to strike deeper into the territory of adversary with a greater accuracy and precision – the missile has a circular error probe (CEP) of less than a meter. The missile is an advanced variant of Fatah-I increasing the range from 150 km to 400 km. Because of its precision, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness Fatah-II provides Pakistan with a solution to counter missile defense system and cold start doctrine of India. The development of Pralay and Nirbhay missiles by India and Fatah-II by Pakistan showcases an increased focus on conventional missile systems in the region.

The Road Ahead                    

The missile developments in South Asia in 2024 are not a different story than in 2023. The situation needs serious assessment and both states should work towards some kind of bilateral mechanism to ensure risk reduction measures. The first step towards this direction can be expanding the already existing agreement to notify ballistic missile tests to include cruise and hypersonic missiles. Also, because of the increasing development of dual-capable missile systems it is essential to take some steps to reassure the adversary what missiles are only used for conventional roles and what for the nuclear role. Steps like these and others in the face of missile technology advancement can be the only right way for ensuring stability in the region.

This article was published in another form at https://thediplomat.com/2025/03/evolving-missile-technologies-in-india-and-pakistan/