The political landscape of South Asia has been disturbed by the unexpected resignation of Bangladesh’s long-time leader, Sheikh Hasina, after widespread unrest and uncertainty. This sudden shift has not only thrown Bangladesh into a crisis but has caused reverberations across the region, raising pressing questions about India’s influence and the broader geopolitical consequences. This Geopulse analyses the events which are the roots of the crisis, breaks down the driving forces, and assesses what this means for the region, with an emphasis on the future strategy of Pakistan.
What Happened in Bangladesh?
On August 5, 2024, Bangladesh plunged into chaos as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, after 15 years of rule, resigned and fled the country amid escalating protests and violence. The unrest, fuelled by weeks of anti-government demonstrations, peaked when protesters stormed her Dhaka residence, forcing her dramatic escape by helicopter. The military, struggling to control the chaos, pressed her to step down, signalling the close of a contentious chapter in Bangladesh’s history. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has been appointed to lead an interim government, tasked with restoring order and paving the way for new elections.
Reasons Behind the Crisis
The crisis in Bangladesh is deeply rooted in a complex interplay of economic, political, and social factors that have been gradually intensifying over the years. While the immediate catalyst for the unrest was a student-led protest against a controversial quota system in civil service recruitment, the broader causes are far more complex.
Since Sheikh Hasina’s ascension to power in 2008, her administration cultivated close cooperation with India, which viewed her leadership as instrumental in maintaining regional stability. Hasina’s government implemented stringent measures against militant organizations such as Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh and forged significant bilateral agreements, including a landmark land border accord with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2015, aimed at resolving longstanding immigration challenges. In exchange, India made substantial investments in the infrastructure of Bangladesh, designed to enhance connectivity between India’s mainland and its northeastern states.
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Over time, Sheikh Hasina’s governance took on increasingly authoritarian characteristics. She systematically consolidated power by placing loyalists in key state institutions, suppressing political dissent, and overseeing numerous extrajudicial killings. Her government justified these actions as essential to preserving Bangladesh’s secular constitutional order against the perceived threat of Islamist radicalism. However, her approach alienated many within the country. Despite her assertions that the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), had ties to radical Islamist groups, public discontent grew due to widespread human rights violations and the erosion of democratic institutions.
Economically, while Bangladesh experienced significant growth during Hasina’s tenure, the benefits were unevenly distributed. The wealthiest 10% of the population controlled 41% of the nation’s total income, while the poorest 10% received just over 1%. This stark inequality, combined with a youth unemployment rate estimated to be as high as 40% among those aged 15 to 24, generated widespread frustration, particularly among younger citizens. Corruption and the perception that economic opportunities were reserved for those with connections to the ruling party further exacerbated the situation.
As protests expanded in both size and intensity, the government’s heavy-handed response—including internet shutdowns, curfews, and mass arrests—only deepened the crisis. The breaking point came when nearly 100 protesters were killed in a single day, leading to an irreparable collapse of Hasina’s authority.
Role of India
Indian involvement in the recent events in Bangladesh is both complex and strategically significant. For years, India has viewed Sheikh Hasina as a key ally in securing Indian interests in Bangladesh. Under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh played a crucial role in supporting efforts of India to curb insurgency and advance connectivity projects vital to strategic goals of India.
As her governance grew increasingly authoritarian and her popularity declined, India found itself in a challenging position. According to reports from the Washington Post, India applied considerable diplomatic pressure on the US to avert sanctions against Hasina, despite the mounting international criticism of human rights abuses of her administration. The US was reportedly considering sanctions due to Hasina’s repression of political opposition and curtailment of freedoms, which had drawn widespread condemnation.
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Later, when she accused the U.S. of attempting to destabilize her government, several American senators advocated for sanctions. In response, India intervened at high-level diplomatic meetings, urging the US to refrain from punitive measures, citing Bangladesh’s strategic importance to India. This intervention underscores commitment of India to safeguarding its interests in Bangladesh, even in the face of international scrutiny.
The depth of Indian involvement became unmistakable when Hasina fled to India after her resignation. Her departure on a C-130 aircraft from Dhaka to Hindon airbase near New Delhi symbolized India’s deep entanglement in political affairs of Bangladesh. This episode highlights the paradox of India’s foreign policy: while officially adhering to a non-interference stance, the actions of India reveal a bias in favour of vested interest in shaping political outcomes in Bangladesh.
Role of the U.S.
The U.S. has played a critical and contentious role in the unfolding political crisis in Bangladesh, with tensions between the two nations escalating over the years. The relationship between the US and Bangladesh, particularly during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, has been marked by a series of diplomatic confrontations, human rights concerns, and allegations of interference.
Sheikh Hasina, who came to power in 2008, has long accused the U.S. of attempting to unseat her government. These accusations have been particularly pronounced during moments of intense political strife in Bangladesh. Notably, in April 2023, Hasina publicly claimed that the US was involved in efforts to overthrow her administration, a sentiment she expressed again during the protests that ultimately led to her resignation.
Tensions between the two countries have been brewing for years. The relationship began to deteriorate significantly in December 2021, when the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and several of its former officials. These sanctions were a response to alleged human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. The sanctions were deeply unpopular with Hasina’s government, which viewed them as an unjustified interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs.
Further straining relations, in September 2023, the US State Department announced that it would impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshi individuals responsible for undermining the democratic election process. This included members of law enforcement, the ruling party, and the political opposition. The U.S. framed these restrictions as part of its commitment to supporting free and fair elections in Bangladesh, but Hasina interpreted them as an effort to destabilize her government.
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The strained relationship reached a peak during the protests leading up to Hasina’s resignation. Amid widespread unrest, the US State Department repeatedly called on the Awami League government to uphold the right to peaceful protest and condemned any violence against demonstrators. The U.S. also criticized the controversial January 2024 elections, which saw low voter turnout and a boycott by the main opposition party, the BNP. The US government stated that the elections were neither free nor fair, further fueling Hasina’s belief that Washington was working against her.
In the days leading up to her resignation, several Indian media outlets reported on an undelivered speech that Hasina had prepared, in which she accused the U.S. of orchestrating a plan to remove her from power. According to these reports, Hasina claimed that she had resigned to prevent further bloodshed, alleging that the US wanted control over strategic areas in Bangladesh, such as Saint Martin’s Island, and was pressuring her to allow American influence in the Bay of Bengal. Although these claims were denied by her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, the narrative of US interference continued to be a significant theme in the final days of Hasina’s rule.
The U.S., however, has consistently denied any attempts to interfere in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. US officials have emphasized their support for democratic processes and human rights, citing the need for free and fair elections in Bangladesh. Despite these denials, the perception of US involvement has been a persistent issue in the diplomatic relations between the two countries.
The tense relationship between Bangladesh and the U.S. has also been influenced by broader geopolitical factors. The US has expressed concern over Bangladesh’s alignment with China, particularly in the context of infrastructure projects and military cooperation. This has added another layer of complexity to the US-Bangladesh relationship, as Washington seeks to counterbalance China’s growing influence in South Asia.
What’s Next for the Region?
The turmoil in Bangladesh has significant implications for the broader South Asian region. The instability threatens to disrupt regional trade, particularly if the unrest continues to affect key areas like the port city of Chittagong, which is vital for Bangladesh’s export-driven economy. The garment industry, which accounts for more than 80% of Bangladesh’s yearly exports, is particularly vulnerable to disruptions, with nearly 37,000 containers already sitting idle at Chittagong port. The internal fallout from the unrest is also profound. The curfew and internet blackout severely impacted Bangladesh’s economy, with business leaders estimating a $10 billion loss. The readymade garment sector, a major driver of the economy, has suffered daily losses of $150 million due to factory closures. The need to recover from the economic damage, combined with reduced export earnings, will increase pressure on Bangladesh’s dwindling foreign exchange reserves. These economic pressures will complicate the interim government’s ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other countries for financial assistance.
Migration issues in South Asia may worsen as instability in Bangladesh could lead to increased migration to neighbouring countries, further straining resources and heightening regional tensions. Geopolitically, the power shift in Bangladesh could alter the regional balance, with China potentially expanding its influence if Indian dominance wanes. China has been increasing its cooperation mechanism in South Asia through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Bangladesh is a key part of this strategy. For Pakistan, the situation presents both opportunities and challenges. The departure of Sheikh Hasina could open the door for improved relations with Bangladesh, particularly if the interim government seeks a balanced approach between India and Pakistan. However, Pakistan must navigate this volatile political landscape carefully, avoiding any actions that might be perceived as interference. Islamabad should focus on strengthening diplomatic ties with Dhaka and supporting a peaceful transition of power. By engaging proactively, Pakistan can contribute to regional stability while advancing its strategic interests.
This Geopulse was published in another form at: https://defensetalks.com/geopulse-situation-in-bangladesh-and-its-implications/
Syed Ali Abbas is Research Officer & Comm Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) Islamabad. He is also an MPhil scholar in the Department of Strategic Studies at the National Defense University (NDU) Islamabad.