The United States had been a global hegemon since the Berlin wall was dismantled and is still the dominant power in the international order. The policies of the U.S. play an important role in determining regional and international stability. The U.S. can choose to pursue a balancing approach in regional dyads or can take sides. If U.S. bolsters capabilities of one state (India), it can induce security dilemma in the other. The second state (Pakistan) will automatically move elsewhere to address and do whatever it takes to address its security dilemma.
The unwarranted arms race in South Asian dyad can fuel the strategic instability at the global level having global consequences in a multipolar world. The U.S. is investing in India to contain China, but who will keep India’s ambition in check? Like Washington needs India for China, it will ultimately need Pakistan to contain India. In India-Pakistan dyad, pursuing a balancing approach can be more beneficial for U.S.
Lenin had aptly said, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Global political order has been going through seismic shifts for the past few years. U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) 2022, states that we have moved post-cold war era to the era of great power competition. U.S.-China competition is the new paradigm from which all the events are now analyzed. There are major developments in the global order that cannot be studied in isolation. Logical linkages need to be developed to understand the impact of various policies in different situations.
At the system level, policies of the U.S. will shape Chinese response. The U.S. Asia-Pacific strategy highlights that it faces mounting challenge – particularly from China. To counter this challenge, U.S. will strengthen its own capabilities and bolster its alliances. For this purpose, U.S. has already built strategic partnerships in form of AUKUS and QUAD. China responded to these strategic partnerships – by not building alliances but, by improving its own military capabilities. These policies and counter policies are intensifying competitive relationship between U.S. and China.
The U.S. is a major external powerbroker in different regions. The actions of U.S. still play an important role in stability of different regional orders. As a global power, it is imperative for U.S. to maintain strategic balance in regional dyads. If U.S. fails to do that it will not only hurt regional stability but, also pushes states to look at other powers for their external security needs. Also, it will have negative consequences on global security because of the emerging multipolar arrangements.
U.S. policies play an influential role in India-Pakistan dyad. Contemporarily, the U.S. is strengthening its strategic partnership with India. The U.S. aims to build India as a counterweight to China. In 2005, U.S. and India signed a nuclear deal. In 2008, India was provided with an NSG waiver. Also, U.S. signed different communication sharing agreements – GSOMIA, LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA – with India. Recently, Indian and U.S. national security advisors met in Washington for convening of initiative on critical and emerging technologies (ICET). Furthermore, there has been calls from Indian lobbyists in Washington for an AUKUS like deal for New Delhi – the INFRUS. Also, they voiced the need for a new nuclear deal to further bolster Indian non-conventional capabilities. The objectives of U.S. are to check the rise of China by entangling it in region and for this purpose Washington is strengthening its ties with New Delhi.
However, U.S. investment in strengthening military might of India is negatively affecting the India-Pakistan nuclear balance. It is inducing a security dilemma in Pakistan as it faces an existential threat from India. Also, it can push Pakistan more towards China and Russia for addressing its security needs. Further, fluctuating Pak-U.S. relations will be negatively affected in the aftermath of close Indo-U.S. ties.
There are different options U.S. can pursue that will have distinct consequences on regional and global stability. For instance, the U.S. can continue to modernize Indian conventional and non-conventional capabilities, while ignoring Pakistan. However, this can push Pakistan towards China and Russia. Also, it will negatively affect regional and global strategic stability. On the other hand, the U.S. can maintain balance in the region by addressing Pakistan’s security needs at the same time while, building Indian capabilities. The U.S. can also provide economic incentives by pursuing mutually beneficial projects. This approach can be beneficial for U.S., regional and international stability.
The U.S. will weaken its bargaining strength in India-Pakistan dyad if it takes one side. Similarly, it will not be able to keep other powers from playing an important role in different crisis situations. Moreover, it will provide U.S. with an option to keep a check on India which can be an unreliable ally. On the other hand, Pakistan has more room to play than it had in the past. Pakistan has strengthened its strategic partnership with China and is also opening to Russia. Pakistan had been at the fringes of last cold war, however, given its geographic contingency with China it will be at the center stage in the emerging great power rivalry. In short, the U.S. has much to gain in pursuing a balanced approach towards India-Pakistan dyad than taking one side and ignoring the other completely.
About the Author
Abdul Moiz Khan is working as a Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad. He is also pursuing an MPhil in International Relations at School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.
Abdul Moiz Khan is Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
