The re-election of Donald Trump as President is reverberating globally. Policymakers in Pakistan are re-assessing the areas of convergences and divergences with America under Trump’s new presidency. Both states share a long history of diplomatic ties marked by periods of collaboration and confrontation. A lack of trust, conditional engagement, and a pay-for-performance approach marked the US-Pakistan relations under Trump’s first term. The following analysis highlights the history of US-Pakistan relations under Trump’s first presidency and looks at possible challenges and opportunities for US-Pak relations under Trump’s new administration.
Once the Cold War ally, Pakistan, was seen by Trump’s first administration from three lenses, the war on terror in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s rivalry with India in South Asia, and Pakistan-China relations in the broader framework of evolving geopolitical realities of Asia-Pacific. During the initial phase, Trump’s administration not only suspended the $300 million Coalition Support Fund but also blamed Islamabad for its failure to tackle certain militant groups. President Trump tweeted that Washington received “nothing but lies and deceit” in return for military and financial support to Pakistan. However, soon America required a safe passage out for the coalition military from Afghanistan, and President Trump called the Pakistani Prime Minister for a meeting in the Oval Office. On the other hand, the subsequent four years of the Biden administration were without turbulence, and a substantial estrangement was observed.
Now Trump shall resume the Oval Office and in the broader framework of the Asia-Pacific, and Pakistan’s close ties with China will significantly impact US-Pakistan relations. Trump’s first presidency marked a significant shift towards a more confrontational and competitive approach to China. Trump prioritized economic nationalism and alliances aimed at counterbalancing Beijing’s global rise. Trump viewed Pakistan-China ties as a threat to the Indo-Pacific strategy. Now Trump has selected Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor and Waltz has publicly claimed that Washington and Beijing are engaged in a Cold War. The forthcoming confrontation between the US and China would certainly impact America’s perception of Pakistan. This approach oversimplifies Islamabad’s strategic importance. However, America has adopted a different approach with India. Despite growing hostilities between the US and Russia, India-Russia bilateral ties are not a bone of contention between Washington and New Delhi. The US overlooks Russia-India ties due to its strategic interests, but it unfairly scrutinizes Pakistan-China relations, despite their regional relevance. Washington has to recognize Islamabad’s geostrategic, and geoeconomic significance and as an independent partner in the region, as it does with New Delhi. This balanced approach would not only build trust but also strengthen Pak-US relations.
Second, America’s strategic interest in post-war Afghanistan could be a point of convergence between Washington and Islamabad. In the latter part of his previous term, Trump had only regarded Pakistan as a key partner in Afghanistan. However, Pakistan has lost around $150 billion, and 70,000 plus lives and is still facing the daunting consequences of its decision to become a partner of America in the War against terror in Afghanistan. Despite that much loss, Trump’s “pay-for-performance” approach with Pakistan has already created disappointment in Islamabad. Despite these odds, it is only Pakistan that can play a pivotal role in the post-war sustainable development of Afghanistan. If Trump continues to coerce Pakistan, like in the initial phase of the first term, it will significantly impact US-Pakistan relations and affect Pakistan’s morale in the fight against terror.
Last and the most important is Pakistan’s rivalry with India. During his previous presidency, Trump signed several strategic agreements with New Delhi including the Logistic Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), Industrial Security Annex, and Integrated Air Defense Weapons System (IADWS). These defence and military collaborations are undermining the strategic stability of South Asia. The Trump 2.0 administration follows the same patterns, giving special favors to India, it would not only undermine regional security but also deteriorate US-Pakistan relations.
The composition of Trump’s upcoming cabinet also poses concerns for US-Pakistan relations. Indian descent Tulsi Gabbard, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Kash Patel, and Bobby Jindal are expected to take prominent positions in strategic departments including Homeland Security, and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). They are active proponents of the Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh (HSS) and Overseas Friends of Bharatiya Janata Party (OFBJP), an international wing of RSS. Moreover, the Congressional Research Services’ report “India: Religious Freedom Issues” also indicates that Hindu Americans tried to influence congressional and even presidential perspectives, by some accounts directly on behalf of the Indian government. Such RSS-affiliated persons would play a significant role in American policy choices. Given the RSS political manifesto, the RSS-associated diaspora, close to Trump could create further challenges for Pakistan.
Washington’s exclusive prioritization of New Delhi under its Asia-Pacific strategy has exacerbated tensions for regional stability by creating a strategic imbalance between Pakistan and India. If Washington adopts the same approach, regional stability will further deteriorate with the rise of the arms race and unregulated transfer of advanced military technologies. Moreover, the persistent mistrust that remained a key challenge in Pak-US long-term relationships, and the presence of RSS-affiliated individuals in the US policymaking may further enhance mistrust and may create challenges for Islamabad, such as the denial to acquire advanced technologies for defense and security and facing economic coercive measures against maintaining ties with China. Furthermore, US transitional approach has alienated Islamabad, despite addressing the security concerns associated with its withdrawal from Kabul. The resurgence of terrorism highlights the need for maintaining sustained US-Pakistan security cooperation on counter-terrorism. In conclusion, collaboration in trade, exploration of rare earth materials for advanced technologies, climate action, and people-to-people engagement, along with a regional balanced approach, mutual trust building, and security cooperation on counter-terrorism can be the points of convergence for substantive relations between Islamabad and Washington.
This article was published in another form at https://thegsinsight.com/the-future-prospects-of-us-pakistan-relation-under-trump-2-0/
Mr Malik Muhammad Kashif is Research Assistant at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
