The United States (US) has once again imposed sanctions on Pakistan’s national and private entities for allegedly supporting the development of long-range ballistic missile systems. Under Executive Order 13382, National Development Complex (NDC), Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprise are sanctioned. The sanctions come with a claim by then-Principal Deputy National Security Adviser, Jonathan Finer, that Pakistan is developing rocket motors for long-range ballistic missiles and these missiles could be used to attack American territory. The following analysis compares Pakistan’s and India’s missile capabilities—examining publicly available data on tested rocket motors, tested missiles, under-development rocket motors, and under-development missile systems—to highlight the discriminatory nature of these sanctions and their impact on South Asia’s strategic stability.
Pakistan has so far tested the Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM), Shaheen-III, which has a declared strike range of 2750 km and uses two-staged rocket motors with less than 1.4 meters of diameter. To reach the American mainland, Pakistan needs to develop a missile having a range of 12000 km and rocket motors with a diameter of more than 1.6 meters. So far, Pakistan has not tested any missile as well as the rocket motors that could launch a missile capable of reaching the American mainland. Even credible sources on nuclear matters, including the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Federation of American Scientists, and Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), have never projected that Pakistan is developing a missile system with a strike range exceeding 2750 km.
Most importantly, India is the focus of Pakistan’s deterrence capability and Shaheen-III completely covers India’s mainland including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. However, in the future, if Pakistan tests large-diameter rocket motors it will be either for its space program or for boosting acceleration, reducing burn time, having additional space for advanced guidance systems, enhancing terminal manoeuvring and improving the ballistic trajectory of existing missile systems including Shaheen-III.
Contrary to this, India has already conducted the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Agni-V test which has a range between 5000 to 8000 Km and uses rocket motors having a diameter of 2 meters. Moreover, India is developing a K-5 missile that is Submarine Launch Ballistic Missile (SLBM) with a range between 6000 to 8000 Km. The K-5’s rocket motors are likely comparable to or slightly larger than those of the Agni-V. Given its range and payload capacity, its rocket motors are expected to have a diameter between 1.5 to 2.2 meters.
India also manufactures 2.8 meter rocked motors for its Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) programs, which significantly exceed the size requirement for ICBM. In the 1960s, India acquired solid fuel technology from the US, which played a crucial role in the development of the Satellite Launch Vehicle (SLV-3). This technology eventually contributed to the PSLV program, which, in turn, provided the foundation for India’s ballistic missile advancements. Notably, India initially developed 1.8-meter rocket motors for SLV-3 which were later adopted for the Agni-III MRBM.
Another important development is highlighted in a book titled “Sabre Rattling in Space: A South Asian Perspective” published by Springer in 2024. It states that India is near completion of developing a four-stage intercontinental-range, Agni-VI, missile that would have a range between 10,000 to 12,000 km. Simultaneously, the Surya ICBM, under development, would have a range between 12000 to 16000 km. This development is also identified by many credible sources including Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and Federation of American Scientists. Therefore, India is currently not just near testing a missile that would easily reach the US and strike targets in Europe, Africa, Asia, Alaska, Northern Canada, and Oceania but has tested rocket motors that could easily lead the missile into the American mainland.
Furthermore, India’s membership in the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)—as a non-NPT Nuclear Weapon State (NWS) that has developed large-diameter rocket motors —presents a paradox. India’s development of such technologies raises concerns about the dual-use nature of its space program, which is already diverted for missile applications. Thus, the US is keeping a blind eye on the Indian developments. In contrast, Pakistan, which is not a member of the MTCR and has not tested rocket motors exceeding the diameter of 1.4 meters, faces sanctions based on unrealistic assumptions about its rocket motors and missile systems that have no sign of under development. Ignoring India’s rapidly growing missile developments while sanctioning Pakistan without any tangible evidence also results in widening the strategic imbalance in South Asia. These discriminatory policies, including double standard selective applications of the non-proliferation framework, not only challenge the integrity of the regime but also endanger regional peace and stability. To strengthen the non-proliferation regime, all nuclear-capable states must be held to uniform standards of transparency and accountability. Thereby, South Asian strategic stability can be strengthened by promoting equitable non-proliferation policies, encouraging dialogue to address regional asymmetries, and avoiding policy choices that accentuate the strategic imbalance in the region.
This article was published in another form at https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/defense-security/us-sanctions-on-pakistan-and-strategic-imbalance-in-south-asia/
Fakhar Alam is Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
