- I thank IISS, particularly Mr. Antoine Levesques and all those who are here today. I recall my earlier visits to IISS and I must mention here our long standing partnership og CISS with IISS.
- A country’s strategic environment is determined by three fundamental factors:
- Its location
- Its history
- The play of global policies
- Pakistan is a pivotal state located at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East which highlights its geopolitical importance. Located between India in the East and Iran and Afghanistan in the West, it’s security perceptions have been largely influenced by the relationship that it has had with India and Afghanistan.
- Since partition, India and Pakistan have fought three major wars (1948, 1965 and 1971), witnessed two large border clashes (Runn of Kutch in 1965, Kargil 1999), experienced four major crises (Brasstacks 1987, troops confrontation in 2001-2002 and Balakot-Pulwama 2019).
- Deep suspicians, mutual mistrust and antagonism continue to bedevil Indo-Pakistan relations. The transformation of India from a secular country to Bharat – a Hindu supremacist state – is an existential threat especially under the rise of Hindutva and RSS ideology, which pursues the objective of Akhand Bharat.
- India wants to build its status and revise the regional and global order. Indian-terror network operating across the world from Canada to Australia has also carried out terrorism in Pakistan. The recent killings and attempted killings in Pakistan, Canada, the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom highlight the revisionist behavior of India that is a threat to both regional and global peace.
- India has plans to continue to enlarge and modernize its nuclear and military forces. Recently, India has become the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal in the world. India has opted for offensive doctrines including Cold Start and Pro-Active Operations vis-à-vis Pakistan.
- India is shifting its nuclear posture from assured retaliation to pre-emptive strikes that coupled with proactive conventional doctrines can increase the risks of nuclear use in the region. The dangerous Indian nuclear doctrine that seeks to explore space for limited warfare under the nuclear overhang, its so called surgical strikes and ideas of Counter Force pre-emptive strikes increase strategic instability. India is continuously testing Pakistan’s nuclear threshold which is risky.
- As politics of exceptionalism is manifested through projecting India as the ‘net security provider’ in the region, India aspires to assume greater responsibilities in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and beyond. Nuclearization of Indian Ocean and weaponization of outer space shall increase the risk of war.
- The spigots of technology and knowledge have been opened to build India’s power. Exceptions have been created for New Delhi in the non-proliferation regime, which is becoming cartelised. Indo-U.S. strategic partnership has resulted in number of defense deals and waivers such as Indo-U.S. Nuclear Deal (2005), exceptional waiver of NSG (2008), Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (2012), Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (2016), Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (2018), Strategic Trade Authorization – 1 Status (2018), Industrial Security Annex (2019) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (2020).The agreements encourage India to take aggressive action against its neighbors via enhancing Indian surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting capabilities.
- Indian revisionist designs, hegemonic ambitions, and proactive military doctrines are a threat to the national security of Pakistan and warrant top priority concerns of Islamabad. Pakistan has always maintained a strategy of credible minimum deterrence and eschewed arms race. Islamabad has chosen to balance New Delhi qualitatively and not quantitatively highlight its status as a responsible regional state.
- In the West, Pakistan experienced a bruising encounter with the Soviet Union when it militarily interviened in Afghanistan and in 1979. I may mention here my personal experience when I was appointed Director Afghanistan in MoFA a day after the intervention occurred. The entry into Pakistan of the Kalashnikov gun culture and drug trafficking messed up our social fabric and norms which are still reeling under the impact. It also led to the advent of the Taliban, once in the 1990’s and now in 2020s.
- After the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan in 2014, a new wave of cross-border terrorism began in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Balochistan. This surge in terrorism is not only a threat to the security of Pakistan but also to the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. For Pakistan, a peaceful and stable Afghanistan is the only goal. The current Afghan Government has a responsibility to stop cross-border terrorism and end safe havens of militants in its territory.
- In the North, Pakistan has an all-weather friend in the face of China. Pakistan has a strategic partnership with China that has been further strengthened by the signing of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a flagship project of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
- Pakistan has strong relations with Iran despite a few ups and downs in the recent past. Pakistan has always supported Iran’s nuclear deal and encouraged peace over conflict in all regional matters.
- At the global level, the geostrategic environment is in a flux with a shift from unipolarity to multipolarity and a new great power rivalry between the United States and China at the center of it.
- The United States, in its recent National Security Strategy, has highlighted its desire for a competitive enduring edge over China while constraining Russia. Moreover, the Great Power competition is shifting the focus from the Middle East and Europe to the Asia-Pacific with IOR at the center of it.
- The United States is making new alliances while strengthening the old ones. These mainly include AUKUS (a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and the Quadrilateral alliance (a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States).
- QUAD and AUKUS are potentially disruptive to the delicate regional balance of power in the IOR. These initiatives, with their emphasis on enhanced military cooperation and advanced capabilities, risk exacerbating tensions and destabilizing the region. Pakistan feels that any measures that upset the existing equilibrium could have far-reaching implications for regional security dynamics.
- The exclusive nature of the QUAD and AUKUS alliances has the potential to sideline other countries in the IOR from participating in crucial regional security discussions and decision-making processes. This exclusivity raises the specter of marginalization of others, hindering the prospects for broader multilateral engagement and inhibiting the development of comprehensive approaches to address shared security challenges in the region.
- Moreover, the QUAD and AUKUS initiatives are driven by strategic motivations aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the region. Given Pakistan’s deep-rooted and significant ties with China, any developments that are perceived as targeting or isolating China may cause disequilibrium which would be of great concern to Pakistan’s foreign policy calculus.
- Pakistan cautions against the potential for an arms race in the Asia Pacific region triggered by initiatives such as AUKUS, which facilitates the acquisition of advanced military capabilities, including nuclear-powered submarines. Such developments have the potential to heighten tensions, create security dilemmas, and undermine regional stability, necessitating a careful appraisal of the implications and ramifications of a possible arms build-up.
- Such alliances also disturb regional order where a few states enjoy exceptionalism as they are seen as a counter-weight to others. The focus should be on areas of cooperation especially in non-traditional security paradigms including climate change, maritime security, peaceful uses of space, and countering Islamophobia.
- Pakistan always advocates a cooperative and inclusive approach to maritime security in the IOR, rooted in multilateral frameworks that encompass all relevant stakeholders. Pakistan contends that regional challenges and security concerns can be more effectively addressed through dialogue, trust-building mechanisms, and cooperation among littoral states, fostering a secure and stable maritime environment that ensures the collective security of the region.
- Arms control is eroding internationally. The scrapping of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the United States exiting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Russian decision to de-ratify CTBT, and the uncertain future of the New Start Treaty – only nuclear arms control treaty left between the United States and Russia – highlights the challenges posed to the non-proliferation regime.
- Regarding deterrence, major powers are adopting tailored and integrated deterrence which will fuel greater integration of threats, and means, as well as, integration within and across alliances.
- Moreover, the world is witnessing the threat of militarization of space via space forces. Deployment of new systems like hypersonic missiles, Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, anti-satellite systems, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning will fuel arms races across the globe.
- With this hybridity, major powers are also involved in grey zone activities including cyber, space, economic coercion, proxies, etc.
- Pakistan has close relations with China and also the United States. In the past, it has played an important role in easing tensions between the two countries. Pakistan still has the potential to act as a bridge between both China and the United States for peace and stability in the region and beyond.
- The fragile strategic stability in South Asia requires that we move beyond the tactical notions of crisis management and pursue dispute resolution. IIOJ&K remains a core issue of conflict between India and Pakistan and a nuclear flashpoint. Unless disputes are resolved, peace in South Asia will remain elusive.
- Pakistan’s strategic environment poses several security challenges but with stability at home and careful long-term policymaking, it can take advantage of its geostrategic positioning and act as a peacemaker in the region.
- Pakistan will not move away from its position of peaceful coexistence, despite Indian provocations, all the while ensuring the defense of its sovereignty. Pakistan will continue to propose SRR as an opportunity for the establishment of durable peace, avoidance of an arms race and enhancing stability in South Asia.
- Thankyou!
