A diplomatic controversy erupted following the recent imposition of the U.S. sanctions on Pakistan’s state-owned National Development Complex (NDC) and three private Karachi-based companies, accused of their involvement in developing Pakistan’s long-range missiles. These sanctions, which have barred American entities from conducting business with these targeted companies, have brought to light a different approach by the U.S. towards its major non-NATO ally, Pakistan. The latest round of sanctions shows Biden administration’s disregard for Pakistan’s long history of cooperation with Washington. Islamabad has always sought to engage diplomatically with the White House in a constructive manner on all issues and it aspires to nurture this relationship in the future. However, the country-specific sanctions imposed on Pakistan’s missile program by the U.S., grounded in doubts and assumptions, do not bode well for the overall stability of the relationship.
Since I950s, Pakistan has been a key ally of the U.S. and part of its broader strategy in the region, especially during the Cold War and the War on Terror. Pakistan has made significant strides in fostering this partnership. However, it still struggles to preserve peace and stability in this region after the U.S. hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan. Recent spate of US allegations against Pakistan – a close and longstanding tactical partner – would not only increase mistrust between the two states, but also undermine the credibility of non-proliferation regime.
Such country-specific sanctions tend to create an imbalance in the strategic calculus of South Asia, shifting the balance of power towards Pakistan’s adversary, India. New Delhi’s military and nuclear modernization is already destabilizing the South Asia. Washington’s favoring of New Delhi would further augment the gap between India and Pakistan, reigniting an arms race between the neighbors in South Asia. Historically, the U.S has played constructive third-party role in easing tensions between Pakistan and India. However, growing mistrust between Pakistan and the U.S. on strategic issues could limit its leverage to act as neutral mediator in any future crisis. Such trust deficit between the U.S. and Pakistan could undermine regional stability in South Asia.
With New Delhi’s evolving missile capabilities, Pakistan considers its strategic capabilities crucial for deterrence. This ensures that the country does not face an existential threat from across its border. Islamabad maintains that its missile and nuclear program are intended to counterbalance India’s growing conventional and nuclear superiority.
According to the former U.S. Principal Deputy National Security Advisor, Jon Finer, Pakistan has pursued “increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors”. If those trends continue, Finer said, “Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States” he further said that the advancement in Pakistan’s ballistic missile system could pose a direct threat to global security, enabling Pakistan to target countries far beyond its immediate neighborhood.
In response Pakistan’s Foreign Office commented on the Finer’s Statement and said that the perception of an alleged threat was “unfortunate”. These sanctions which are imposed under Executive Order 13382, are based on mere doubts and suspicions devoid of any substantial evidence. In its statement, MOFA said that “Pakistan has also made it abundantly clear that our strategic programme and allied capabilities are solely meant to deter and thwart a clear and visible existential threat from our neighbourhood and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country.” With such clarity in Pakistan’s strategic approach, the U.S. sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic missile program are nothing more than misplaced concerns.
U.S. is turning a blind eye towards Indian nuclear expansion and is strengthening its strategic partnership so that it can prop it up as a counterweight to China. Under this strategic cooperation, U.S. facilitates India with the transfer of high-end defense technologies, underpinned by agreements such as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) and Communications Capability and Security Agreement (COMCASA). Under the framework of Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) and Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (CET). In 2008, the United States pampered India with a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) restrictions, exempting it from obligations that apply to nuclear export controls for states outside the scope of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).This mutual defense cooperation between the U.S. and India augments Indian military capabilities, accentuating military asymmetries in South Asia.
While maintaining silence on India’s Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile Program, (ICBM), with a manifest range of above 5000 kilometers, U.S. officials have raised misleading concerns regarding Pakistan’s capabilities. In reality, the longest-range ballistic missile of Pakistan, the Shaheen III, has demonstrated a range of 2750 kilometers, explicitly designed to deter only India. The country’s ballistic missile program has no intention to endanger sovereignty of any other state including allies of its longstanding partner, the United Sates.
To overcome this trust deficit, Pakistan and the U.S. can take an initiative to forge a comprehensive security dialogue to align their strategic interests. This security dialogue would provide an avenue to discuss common security objectives, including regional stability, counterterrorism efforts, and transnational threats. Furthermore, mutual collaboration in intelligence-sharing will augment the effectiveness of both nation’s security apparatus. Therefore, constructive communication between Pakistan and the U.S. is crucial to building a more stable and cooperative future, which would not only strengthen their bilateral ties but also contribute to peace and security in South Asia and beyond. In conclusion, while the Biden administration expresses concerns about Pakistan’s missile capabilities, Islamabad maintains that these measures are purely defensive in nature, and are designed to safeguard its national security amidst evolving regional tensions. Therefore, it would be fruitful for Pak-U.S. bilateral ties if the U.S. acknowledges Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and engages in constructive dialogue. Collaboration rather than coercion is necessary for Pakistan and U.S. to address shared challenges.
This article was published in another form at https://globalsecurityreview.com/american-sanctions-and-pakistans-strategic-realities/
Ms Nawal Nawaz is Research Assistant at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
