Challenging the Norms Against Nuclear Testing: A Pyrrhic Victory for All

A global norm against nuclear testing has lessened the chances of conflict worldwide. Russia is in the process of withdrawing its ratification of Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The previous month, it was reported that satellite imagery of expansion of test sites in China, US and Russia indicate that these major powers may resume nuclear testing. The possibilities of Indian resumption of nuclear testing has again resurfaced. These actions could ignite a chain reaction of consequences while disturbing global strategic stability.

In 1974, Indian nuclear tests – under the guise of peaceful nuclear explosion – were conducted through the operation ‘Smiling Buddha.’ These tests shocked the world and major powers formed a Nuclear Suppliers Group to prevent its members from engaging in nuclear trade with those states that were not party to the NPT. Notwithstanding the above, India conducted overt nuclear tests in 1998. Presently, different Indian  policymakers as well as scholars are trying to prepare the ground in the international community regarding possible Indian nuclear testing.

Indian policymakers have time and again, stated that Indian nuclear tests in 1998 were unsuccessful where the thermonuclear device in 1998 was a failure. In 2008, Mr Mukherjee flippantly stated that India has the right to test, others have the right to react.” Similarly, many scholars view the resumption of nuclear testing by US, Russia or China as an opportunity to go down the same path. The idea is that the world will be more focused on the global nuclear order and major players thereby, India, can get away with it.

Indian resumption of nuclear testing has little to do with security. Rather, it has more to do with prestige and domestic politics. Domestically, even in his election manifesto, PM Modi mentioned about the possibility of Indian resumption of nuclear testing. It is a possibility that near the elections, to secure another term in office, PM Modi may opt for nuclear testing. Moreover, India wants to be a regional policeman. PM Modi’s foreign policies towards its neighbors have been hostile in nature. For instance, out of eight neighboring countries, India has border disputes with six of its neighbors – with the exception of Bhutan and Maldives. In February 2019, PM Modi threatened Pakistan with the use of nuclear weapons calling it a “a night of murder.” Of course, much of it is irresponsible bravado as India would seriously disturb not only regional stability but even beyond.

Such Indian inclination towards nuclear testing will further heighten security dilemmas in Sout Asia and beyond. For instance, in a regional perspective, Indian route towards live nuclear testing will create a domino effect in South Asia. In 1998 when India conducted nuclear tests and openly declared itself as a Nuclear Weapon State (NWS), Pakistan was compelled to become a reluctant entrant as a NWS on the world stage thereby, reclaiming strategic stability to be upheld in South Asia. If India decides to go for another round of nuclear tests, Pakistan will be expected to respond in kind.

In a global perspective, India is modernizing its nuclear missile inventory where, it is increasing the range of its Agni V Inter Continental Ballistic Missile range 9,000 kms and 12,000 kms. One of the targets of Indian ICBMS can be the US or Europe – as some scholars have indicated. Despite this, major powers are arming India through defense and nuclear deals. It is so because India is considered as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region. Furthermore, India’s strong lobbying, media-narrative building, power projection as a future global leader, the western military nuclear industrial complex, and India seen as a possible counterweight to China are the reasons that Indian aggressive actions are being ignored. Conversely, if push comes to shove, India will not fight a US war with China. For instance, former Indian ambassador to China Ashok Kantha recently said that India is not interested in economic decoupling from China.

Therefore, the rational response of the international community should be to maintain strategic stability in the region rather than disturbing the balance of power by giving leverage to India. Major powers should keep a check on India in order to deter it from going down this dangerous route through combination of coercion, compellence and persuasion. For instance, the major powers should coerce India through the threat of cost associated with Indian nuclear testing. It should be made clear that this will cost India its status as the most important ally in the region. Some scholars think that the cost of losing the Indo-US deal is worth conducting such tests. Nevertheless, all Indian nuclear deals were concluded because of Indo-US nuclear deal and the NSG waiver. In response to possible Indian nuclear tests, if the US discards this deal, all other states may follow suit. This will result in a huge hiatus to Indian nuclear program and its global and regional ambitions. Other military logistic exchange agreements will also suffer.

Major powers should not opt for resumption of nuclear testing as it will not only create a domino effect but also endanger peace and stability globally. This will result in pyrrhic victory, where the cost of victory will be tantamount to defeat!